Yes, the fact that they have managed to find buyers for all of the remainder of the 2017 crop is definitely a positive. I was a bit worried that the Californians might have stolen their market.
Another positive is that it looks increasingly as if the pollination this year should be sufficient for a decent crop. I noticed that they mentioned that 'bee strength was good' (pg 7 of the speeches). Based on the weather data in the company orchard locations at bloom time, I got the impression that they were only likely to have had major pollination issues if the bee strength was insufficient, but it sounds like there was no bee shortage.
On the other hand, that problem with frost in the NSW orchards could potentially have an adverse impact on the crop size next year. Hopefully the frost fans and sprinklers were able to minimise most of the damage from the frost.
I had a look at the August weather data on the BOM website for the orchard locations yesterday. There was something quite unusual about the temperature in Hillston and Griffith in that month.
On the 28th and 29th of that month, the minimum temperature in Hillston exceeded -3 degrees Celsius; and for Griffith on both days in some areas the minimum temperature was in excess of -4 degrees.
Minimum temperatures falling to such levels are extremely unusual for August in these locations, although not entirely without precedent. What is quite odd, however, is how late in the month these cold days occurred: in August, the coldest days in Hillston or Griffith typically take place early or in the middle of the month. It is extremely unusual to find such cold temperatures as late as the 28th and the 29th in August.
The significance of this is that the impact of frost could be more substantial given that it occurred so late in the month. In early August, it is probable that most of the buds would still be dormant, and so frost wouldn't be such an issue. But by the end of the month, pollination would be complete and fruitlets would have started to form on the trees.
In other words, it looks as if in the NSW orchards the frost hit at the worst time possible.
Is it possible that the frost fans and sprinklers that the company has in place could have prevented some or all of the damage?. According to the Rural Funds Group website, the combination of anti-frost sprinkler systems and frost fans has the potential to increase ground temperatures in orchards by as much as three to four degrees.
Assuming the frost fans and sprinklers were working efficiently, by my assessment they should have been able to prevent most of the damage in the Hillston orchard. However, the temperature got so cold in the Griffith orchard in late August it looks to me like even the frost-mitigation measures might not be enough to fully prevent some frost damage.
It seems to me that there are recurring issues with the NSW orchards. I recall earlier in the year one poster was complaining that the Californian almond growers did not seem to be impacted by weather related problems to same extent as this company, and I wonder if there could be some truth in that remark.
The problem appears to largely be with the locations in the north. The weather in Hillston and Griffith seems to be becoming increasingly erratic in recent years. I'm guessing it is probably a climate change related issue.
SHV Price at posting:
$4.39 Sentiment: None Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)