SPR 3.74% 97.0¢ spartan resources limited

Ann: Significant Assays Results Outside Never Never MRE, page-13

  1. 1,134 Posts.
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    Haven't posted for ages on Hotcopper, but lots of great discussion in this forum compared to the usual dribble on Hotcopper so thought I would join in!

    Some are concerned with the royalty, however I wouldn't be too concerned. Look at Capricorn, they ended up with a royalty to South32 (someone else ended up buying it) and to the Traditional Owners on top of the Govt royalty and are paying around 7% royalty all up and are still making good money on a low-grade deposit. Never Never can wear it, easily I suspect.

    NN is certainly shaping up to be a significant deposit. I bought in after the recent raise as the transformational NN story got lost within the disappointment of the mine shutdown. Unfortunate for GCY that NN wasn't discovered earlier to save longer term shareholders some pain.

    Simon (and Tembo) should also ignore any overtures from larger companies and build out the inherent value that is emerging here. It is, excuse the pun, a golden opportunity they won't come across again.

    As a comparison, have a look at market darling, Bellevue Gold's Stage 1 Feasibility numbers. This was based on a >2m oz resource at 10 g/t.

    However as we know, a lot of Bellevue's gold is in narrow, at times 1m or sub 1m veins, so with mining dilution, their actual ore Reserve came out to 2.7mt @ 8 g/t for 690k oz and LOM Reserves to 5.6mt @ 6.4 g/t for 1.1m oz.

    Never Never won't suffer the same Resource to Reserves grade downgrade given its thickness. In fact its possible the ore Reserve could be higher grade as, given the need to leave some ore in place as pillars etc, they can cherry pick to an extent the higher grade zones. With underground reserves at NN currently at 216k oz @ 7.22 g/t and with that grade somewhat increasing/consistently around 10 g/t below the current Resource, its very likely an ore Reserve will end up higher than Bellevue's.

    Bellevue went for an average LOM production of 151k oz, similar to what Simon is aiming for so their metrics offer a good comparison.

    Bellevue Stage 1 had a pre-tax NPV5 of $900m based on a A$2300 per oz price for a 58% IRR (pre-tax). Note that I am using pre-tax numbers as GCY will have north of $300m in losses to apply.

    Now of course Bellevue was a new mine so they actually had to build a plant so that NPV takes into account the upfront capex of $269m. GCY will have some upfront also, but nowhere near that, perhaps around $50-70m.

    If GCY can get to their stated goal of +600k Reserves, which I think they will achieve easily on NN alone, then you are looking at a project with an NPV north of $1b and an IRR that would blow your minds.

    Who needs MGV or WGX? GCY have the potential to get to a market cap larger than WGX ($680m/$520m EV). As resource drilling continues to tick all the boxes its really only about execution.

    As for the gold price, wait until interest rates top out/start coming down. Gold could explode. That gold has been going up/holding its levels during this rapid rate rise period, is extremely bullish IMO. There could be a period of volatility if a recession leads to rates going down as everything get sold down in the first instance, but gold should go nuts thereafter.

    Link to Bellevue Stage 1: https://s28.q4cdn.com/583965976/files/doc_multimedia/portfolios/bellevue-gold-feasibility-february-18-2021.pdf
 
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