Hi Kgkgb100,
That is certainly a good list of Cu development projects you list. However, when you look at when they will come online and their cumulative production rates relative to the production declines that the old and tired monster mines are suffering and it becomes apparent that there is a supply shortfall baked into the cake in the out years.
Research from Gorozen is interesting in this regard. Link is below:
http://gorozen.com/research/commentaries
The view that there is a large amount of supply simply waiting to be developed is also at odds with what is publicly being disclosed by major miners such as Rio (publicly stating that they need to pay up for Cu development projects as they have a bare cupboard).
It is also at odds to the wave of M&A in the Cu sector lately with AOH, FND, NSU, AVB all attracting bids.
Lastly, through some contacts, I have been told that in private meetings the management teams of OGC, FNV and Lundien have all stated that the Cu development pipeline is bare and the prospects are very good for Cu prices/ M&A in the years ahead.
The larger mines that have been supplying the market for years are depleting with grades falling and depths increasing (higher costs). Potential replacement deposits are smaller and, sector wide, are lower grade. Those that are exceptional (e.g. Timok) are years from production or, like Kamoa Kakula are in very questionable geographies where, I have again been informed, "Western financing is firmly closed" at this point.
This all implies a higher Cu price is required to incent new development and ensure that existing mines remain viable ... unless the world finds a new replacement to Cu.
IMO, MOD represents an excellent opportunity for a long term investor to accumulate shares whilst no one cares. MOD has a solid "known" development project in T3 at the PFS stage and, IMO, a huge exploration portfolio that could deliver multiples of the known R&R so far.
Cheers
John
