If you go back and review what information has been provided via the announcements, webinars and presentations etc., an order of US$90K should yield per month 10-14% revenue under the subscription service model (RR). Let's look at what that means with the following assumptions:
- This order is the initial order and more to come .
- Drone life expectancy 2.5 to 3 years in normal conditions.
- if for example a 5 year period then that should equate to 2 purchase orders . (Yes the user could switch the halo out but at the pace of technology in this sector we can assume more than likely a new new drone purchase would include a new halo).
- Ignore any expansion or increase orders.
- Ignore any damaged or lost drones.
- Ignore any price increases.
With those assumptions, based on yesterday orders announced ......Yes assumptions have been made but the variability of the business and nature of the growth makes it hard to give exact numbers. Every deal will be bespoke and with many variances.
- $180k in halo purchases .
- A further 10% a subscription fee per month (halo as a service) equating to $9k a month or $108k a year ($540k over 5 years)
- That's revenue of $720k
They have the One-Time sale and Halo as a service model (subscription) and there will be many variances within the models. The one thing that is very clear is that revenue numbers that are required to be announced on the ASX do not paint a true picture of a new order's true value. Plus I am sure ELS are doing everything to protect their pricing model from not only potential clients but any possible emerging competition.
I have to repeat ELS now has over 100 design win partners .........so i will leave it to you to do the maths .
What is just as impressive for me is that the long awaited FAA TC approval two months ago has had an instant impact in orders!!
A very exciting period ahead!!
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