"SS produced a clanger last night being down 15% at one stage only to finish 9% down for the night."That's where I do not understand SS's game plan. I asked a question about shorting, and the many replies I got were from the pointy of view of the shorter, not of the lender, except for one who said the lender gets his shares back so it's all ok (for him). But it isn't!
Round about 6 months ago, I think from memory, SS had about 5% of CXO. The average SP was say $1.25. For 90m shares, that value is $112m. Just a month ago, the SP was 80c (it is now higher, but no thanks to them), and this drop, many say, is related to shorting, with SS being a major lender. So their value last month was $72m, for a "paper" loss of $40m. So, what's smart about that? They helped drive the SP down, would have received some fee, but overall they are down - and they knew this would happen as they planned it all. Are they topping up big time now? Surely they must think CXO is a good investment and all these machinations are to acquire more cheaply. Nothing else makes sense.
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One of the oft stated advantages for CXO is that the cost of production is low. However, Hoopz
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/67337105/single has this nice looking chart that says the cost for CXO is $2397/t LCE, one of the highest of all the producers (blue bubbles). Is Hoopz right - does someone have the right figures?
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There is a lot of talk about a TO, especially now that the resource is confirmed to be bigger. Although, I hear, retail holds 70% of the shares, roughly 1,500m shares (over 75% the number of issued shares) have been traded in the last 6 months for well under $1.40. So there are a lot of retail holders that do not value CXO very much. That is a big worry as they are likely to accept an inadequate offer. I am in it for the long term - the company is probably earning about 35c per share now, and likely to ramp up to over 50c in a year or two - so I'm looking forward to good divvies for my retirement. Don't give in to the nasty SOBs - the FF companies and BEOT. Cheers. DYOR.
