Hi GH,
Let me state upfront, this post is about trying to understand the potential return to me as a shareholder that is all I am trying to do. Some may accuse me of ramping, however if someone can point out mistakes in my calculations then I will happily correct them.
In my post (18/8/2022 link below) I postulated that 400mx100m resource would yield 680,000t based on 10m depth and clay density of 1.7t/m3, ionic clay density could be higher due to the presence of REE.
That it is 1.7x10x400x100=680,000t
If we change this to 1.7X10X600x100 = 1,020,000t. Lets round this off to 1Mt
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/63201484/single
Density of clay
https://short-facts.com/what-is-the-density-of-clay/
and there is this
https://www.structx.com/Soil_Properties_002.html
In my post I simply guessed at the possible profit might be and asked for it to be corrected.
Which Chinasyndrome did, claiming that what DM1 had found would worth at best $15/t, and that at best DM1 could hope for is a profit of $3/t US.
https://hotcopper.com.au/posts/63204854/single
In my calculation in the post yesterday (linked here) I based $2.16 per share on $2/t AU profit on a 2kmx2km resource, ie 2x10x1.7x2000x2000/63000000.Let's correct this for the fully paid SOI of 63181818 and it becomes $2.15.
So what resource could DM1 have.Firstly, the resource will not be homogeneous across its area it will vary across its range so I don't want to create an upper limit of what it might be.Also lets assume profit will be less than above, lets assume that after AISC a profit of $1/t AU.Anyone can replace my figures for their own.So
1.7x10x6000x1000=100Mt
1.7x10x6000x3000=300Mt
1.7x10x18000x3000=900Mt
@ $1/t AU profit under current SOI
100Mt = $1.58 ps
300Mt = $4.75 ps
900Mt = $14.22 ps
Now this is all pie in the sky kinda stuff, I am simply spitballing here. There remains a lot of uncertainty here and it will be expensive to build the necessary infrastructure to get his off the ground assuming there is a JORC resource here. On the other hand I am sure that both the WA and Fed govs will want to see these clay REEs developed in Australia and if DM1 has an economic resource then there is a chance what it will receive government support of some kind. None of what I have posted is financial advice nor investment advice, it is my back of the envelope calculations for my purposes only and most likely wrong. Certainly happy for my calculations to be corrected.If any of my assumptions change in the future then so do the calculations, I cannot foresee the future hence providing a spread of possible outcomes. One things is certain is that the SOI will change, it just depends on when capital raises occur as to what impact this might have on any future valuations.
gltah
