I've sort of pointed this out before but I'll post up the...

I've sort of pointed this out before but I'll post up the latest. While we didn't get a Reserves report now, we will when pipeline and egress negotiations complete, funded and built ... all H2 or so it says. On that basis I'll assume we'll get a Dec 2019 Reserves report

One of Saguaro's/Black Swan's neighbour's to the East is Chinook Energy (I do not hold them). They closed at 12.5 cps today. On the last day of 2018 was 13 cps. Their closing price Feb 13 (the day after releasing updated reserves report) was 14 cps. Their present MC is CAD$28M (not too different to us) and 2018 avg production was 3,700 boepd. They've drilled 2 test wells and 13 Hz wells. They drill shorter laterals (~1,800) which are cheaper (~$4.3M) and produce at lower rate with IP30 rate of 1,077 BOEpd (5.1 mmcf/d + 226 bbl/d condensate (44 bbl/mmcf) .. which is higher CGR than either Saguaro or CE1 test). The IP365 drops to 662 BOEpd (3.3 MMcfpd + 119 bbl/d condensate (36 bbl/mmcf)). Notice the drop in the CGR ... that was what was referring to inn earlier post. And as far as debt goes only Net Debt of $2M.

They look a lot more like us IMO.

Anyway here is a snapshot of the Reserves Report (prepared by McDaniel) as at end Dec 2018. They red underlining is me drawing attention to it.



First thing to note up top ... you can always get more reserves by committing more capital to drill acreage

Second thing to note ... the Proven developed producing (PDP) Reserves ... that's always the most important number ... its the PV of the FV of the cash flows (but with corporate costs ... so no finance costs or G&A). Its the value you expect to receive from making that D&C capital investment. NOTE THE PER SHARE VALUE = 12 cps and what company is trades at ... that's a "telling number" for Chinook, PONY, and many more

Third thing to note ... Undeveloped land value is given as $337/acre on basis of company's internal valuation. Why would that be given their fairly large (>77,000 contiguous acres in liquids rich acreage quite close to CE1).


Anyway, the production plan is where we appear to be rapidly heading for.