The contracted volume was surprisingly small for a company the...

The contracted volume was surprisingly small for a company the size of Stellantis, so it appears Stellantis are just dipping their toe into this investment, possibly because they are yet to make chemistry decisions across their range of car's. Some may take it as an indication that there isn't really a market for a 50-65kt/yr plant, let alone the 150kt/yr used in the scoping study, hence the limited price response.

Some quick back-of-hand calculations indicate that by 2030 Stellantis are likely to need many times the currently contracted 10kt pa volume - if they are to meet their goals. The good thing is if E25 can build a 50-65kt conversion plant and deliver 10kt, there doesn't seem to be any obvious reason why E25 couldn't replicate the planned plant to increase supply.

So what are these back of hand calculations:
#1 Working upwards from chemistries is difficult because they range from no manganese (LFP) to perhaps 30+kg/vehicle (NMC111, LMO, LMFP). What we do know is that E25 have contracted to supply 10kt (10 million kg) per year. If Stellantis was making 5 million EV's by around 2030 as they indicate is their plan on their website, then they would only have a contracted HPMSM supply from E25 of 2kg/vehicle. Clearly more HPMSM will be needed than this, unless Stellantis was to have a very high reliance on LFP/NCA battery chemistries.

#2 Working backwards from total supply is difficult because whether HPMSM is used in EV's, batteries for other products or other uses completely is unclear. Additionally whether the HPMSM is genuine battery grade or lower grades is also unclear. The Metals news below put HPMSM production at 26,400t in Dec 2022 and by implication 29,800t in Nov 2022. Shutdown maintenance takes volume down to an estimated 14,200t in Jan 2023. World HPMSM production is well past 200kt/yr. If these volumes are primarily supplying an EV market of around 10 million vehicles (including a lot of Chinese LFP) 5 million Stellantis vehicles are going to need a whole lot more than 833t/month. Something nearer 10-15x this seems what may be required.

Both views indicate this is just a starter order from Stellantis for HPMSM. How many more of these orders will come E25's way if they provide a product that meets Stellantis's needs?

https://news.metal.com/newscontent/102059256/china’s-output-of-high-purity-manganese-sulphate-declined-demand-remains-subdued
Metals News - HP Manganese discussion