Australia's largest stock trading and investment forum Australia's #1 stock forum

TMZ

Click for more information

0.00%

0.5¢ thomson resources limited

Needs a top 5 CEO/director and Im all in.Shareholding of...

First 19 Last

Tubsfahkwah

4,799 Posts.

303

23/09/21

12:48

Post #: 56294307

Originally posted by WolfOfWestPerth: ↑
Below is my take on an investment in TMZ as of today.

All IMO and not investment advice.

Wolf

Thomson Resources (ASX: TMZ)

Corporate:

No of Shares on issue
463,177,510
1
Market Cap
~$51m (based on $0.11 share price)
2
Cash on Hand¹
~$6m
3
Enterprise Value
~$45m
4
Options on issue²
Listed Options
~42m (Expiring 30 November 2022 exercisable @ $0.03)
Unlisted Options
8,000,000 (Expiring 30 November 2021 exercisable @ $0.06)
6,862,204 (Expiring 25 November 2023 exercisable @ $0.10)
32,567,916 (Expiring 29 March 2024 exercisable @ $0.20)
57,500,000 (Expiring 30 March 2024 exercisable @ $0.124)

5
Management Performance Rights³
11,250,000
6
Directors & Management⁴
Broadly experienced in corporate and exploration
7
Top 20
~38% of share register
8
Shareholding of Management³
Not a huge shareholding for directors (not long term aligned – see performance rights below)
Estimated on hand as of 30 September 2021
Raised ~$6m in March/April 2021 @ $0.12 – currently trading below that which may represent a good price entry point
i.SPP was not well supported by retail shareholders, only committing $600k of $2.5m
Options
Several issues with these with SP currently at a massive premium to some options on issue
Appreciate that these were probably issued out of the money at the time so have to give some leeway to that
Major ones below:
Listed Options @ $0.03
i.Are being exercised due to massive premium
ii.Possible downward pressure on share price as those converting sell for profits
iii.Expiry date is 30 November 2022, so they have a while to go, might create a hang on the SP going forward
Unlisted Options @ $0.06, $0.10 and $0.124
i.Will potentially keep the SP low for a period of time
Performance Rights
Tranche 1 already vested
Tranche 2 vests upon achieving a 20 day VWAP of $0.20 (expires February 2022)
Tranche 3 vests upon achieving a 20 day VWAP of $0.30 (expires October 2023)
Tranche 4 vests upon achieving a 20 day VWAP of $0.35 (expires March 2023)
Tranche 5 vests upon achieving a 20 day VWAP of $0.45 (expires March 2024)
Company is trying to solve the management alignment issue with performance rights on VWAP targets
During COVID, directors ceased the salaries/fees and participated in the entitlements in June 2020 through receiving the salary in shares

Business/Projects:

Silver focused exploration Company with a strategytargeting a global resources of 100Moz (STAGE 1) – planning to be largest silver resource base on ASX

Major play is silver with the New England Fold Belt
Another play is the Lachlan Fold Belt which is promising for gold and tin
Company believes silver supply is declining, but demand increasing
Major producer is China, creating multiple issues
Acquired multiple projects in quick succession, very clearly defined plan
Company believes if they build critical mass, they can scale to production faster and more cost effectively
Targeting to build a centralised processing facility
Very interesting that they have used a term where they are targeting to turn the project into a business – Mining as a Business (“MaaB”)
Photo below really sets this out nicely

New England Fold Belt Hub & Spoke
Deposit
Resource ASX announced
JORC
1
Conrad 100% owned
Silver, metal and tin
20.7Moz Silver Equivalent @ 193 g/t
~50/50 Indicated/Inferred
2
Texas 100% owned (already has a mine!)
Silver
Tbc
Tbc
3
Silver Spur 100% owned
Silver
Tbc
Tbc
4
Webbs 100% owned
Silver
Tbc
Tbc
5
Mt Carrington earn-in up to 70%
Silver and Gold
Tbc
Tbc

Broad Timeline:

Project
Sep 2021
Oct 2021
Nov – Dec 2021
Jan – Feb 2022
Mar – May 2022
1
Fold Belt Hub & Spoke
Progressing silver oz strategy
Progressing silver oz strategy
Progressing silver oz strategy
Most recent presentation (Sep 2021) targeting the 100Moz equivalent within 5 months
-
2
Lachlan Fold Belt Hub & Spoke
Access/approvals
Access/approvals
Geophysics
Access/approvals
Drilling
Drilling
Metallurgy
Drilling
JORC

My View:

Speculative buy @ $0.10 - $0.11, though the company is further progressed than your typical exploration company
Next 5 months will be telling to see if the company can prove the resource base to be 100Moz equivalent
If they hit this then $0.40 is not a stretch
By my estimations, enough cash to last until June 2022, will need to raise more, hopefully at a high price
Interesting with the Texas Silver Mine acquisition, company could be producing in 2022 if it desired
Company share price rallied to $0.25 previously, so there is definitely some serious interest in the stock

Major Risks:

Proving up silver resources falling short
Raising capital at a lower price, further dilution
Options on issue at such a lower exercise price compared to current (and future) share price
Will create a drag on the share price as those who exercise sell into the market for profits

Expand
Needs a top 5 CEO/director and Im all in.

Shareholding of management and ever present majo-capper combined with ongoing taper talk got me in the end.

Such a good story but they wont let it run and management not incentivised to let it run.

So frustrating!

Last edited by Tubsfahkwah: 23/09/21

TMZ Price at posting: 9.8¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held

0 Great analysis

There are more pages in this discussion • 49 more messages in this thread...

First 19 Last

Add TMZ (ASX) to my watchlist