not a holder, just reading out of interest having seen the offer. for the price move higher towards the 60c implied value, need to have a greater certainty that this is where it will realise (i.e. certainty on where the SVM price will be trading at on transaction close). the normal path for these types of things is for prices to converge as settlement gets closer. you might have some smaller funds who are able/bothered to take the merger arb trade - which would be being buying ORR, and getting short 0.0967 * ORR shares of SVM. if they could execute at last price (also unsure on borrow rates and availability), then you expect to make the difference between your entry and ORR price (lets say you can buy at ~50c, so ~10c per ORR share profit). adjust this to factor in the borrow costs, other holding/transaction costs, tax implications cross jurisdiction (unsure myself), and measures transaction risk (which, perhaps being long ORR might be net positive given chance of second bidder), and you can arrive to some estimated PNL.
imo probably trading close to fairs, maybe some small upside from here, especially if funds get interested on that trade.
ORR Price at posting:
49.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
