HAV 2.50% 19.5¢ havilah resources limited

Perhaps this will help put my thoughts into context. Yes, CAP's...

  1. 907 Posts.
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    Perhaps this will help put my thoughts into context.

    Yes, CAP's Hawson Iron Ore project has an NPV of approx A$1.2B.

    CAP holds approx two thirds of the project, so say $800M.

    Whilst I think it is undervalued, CAP's market cap is approx $11M.

    That is the type of discount that the market has put on CAP's Hawson's iron ore project - and remember its already has a PFS and a clear plan on how they are going to progress the project. And CAP's share price does not have a discount for poor management like HAV does.

    There would be a control premium to acquire CAP's interest in Hawson's at this stage and I believe it's value is significantly more than its market cap.

    But for a project with a completed PFS with robust financials, but without BFS or construction funding in place, there needs to be a big discount to the NPV. Once the BFS is confirmed and construction funding in place, then the value of the project will be closer to its NPV.

    HAV's combined iron projects have the potential to be larger than CAP, but it is currently mostly unproven. For example, even though the ore is there, based on the way it dips and overburden removal, how much could be mined economically? I've got no idea but that is the type of risk that requires a significant discount until that question has been answered and de-risked.

    I hope HAV management stop dreaming about what they could get for their projects and realise that they are only worth what the market is willing to pay for them - and as history has shown, the cost of waiting for a bit more is dulition for all shareholders across all projects.


 
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