"If the real game plan is well over 20 Mtpa of iron ore, then I...

"If the real game plan is well over 20 Mtpa of iron ore, then I can't find too many competitors to Grants Iron Ore Basin. He would certainly be loathed to buy that amount of iron ore on market"

Concur.

20 Mtpa Fe concentrate potential production at the GIB would require 20 MTPA of spare capacity on the Transcontinental Railway, to be able to transport it by train to the Whyalla steelworks.

On Slide 23 of the ASX:CAP 20 March 2019 Investor Presentation it states "Rail to Port Pirie or Whyalla on existing rail (12 Mtpa spare capacity)"

https://www.carpentariares.com.au/wp-content/uploads/2019/03/CAP_Investor-presentation_20-Mar-19.pdf

That 12 Mtpa spare capacity is predicated on the use of exisiting 'passing loops' (also known as crossing loops) on the Transcontinental Railway with some slight modifications, I confirmed that with Quentin Hill (MD, at CAP) yesterday.#

The 12 Mtpa spare capacity was based on information that CAP received from ARTC (Australian Rail Track Corporation).

He also mentioned that the capacity of the line could be increased further with additional strategic passing loops being build, particularly ones of 1.8 kms in length as the trains hauling the Fe concentrate are likely to be that length. So, in theory, if there were enough strategic passing loops you could get to 20 Mtpa.

In my opinion, going to 20 Mtpa would have a material impact on the NPV of the GIB project economics.

Note: the Whyalla steelworks produces steel rail that is used by ARTC. How fortuitous!

The following is a link to the ARTC website re: passing loops (crossing loops) where it talks about passing loops of 1.8 kms in length in SA, VIC and WA, and the cost of the passing loops:

https://www.artc.com.au/2015/11/02/15m-rail-upgrade-for-sa-vic-wa-freight/

"FIVE passing loops across Victoria and South Australia are being extended by the Australian Government to allow for 1,800-metre trains to increase competitiveness and rail capacity between the eastern states and Western Australia."

"Australian Rail Track Corporation (ARTC) Chief Executive Officer John Fullerton said passing loops (also known as crossing loops) effectively duplicate a short section of track, to allow one train to hold while another passes in the opposite direction, before the train in the passing loop continues on its way."


# If you are wondering why I contacted Quentin Hill yesterday, it was because someone had said the spare capacity was only 4-5 Mtpa on that section of railway in South Australia. So I thought I would nip that in the bud.

Cheers

These are only my random thoughts and it does not constitute investment advice. Before acting on any information you read and before making any financial or investment decisions, you should always consult your advisor(s) or other relevant professional experts.