Thanks guy - maybe if I wrote a book and someone bought it I might make some money....LOL.
OK couple of comments....
Oh yes there are financial players powerful enough to take on sovereign countries - even "Mother Russia". Notice the price of commodities (oil, iron ore, copper .... you name it) weaken while the US Dollar strengthens. This is pure financial pressure made possible by sanctions on Russia. As long as oil is priced in US$ "petrodollars" then financial markets can push the price around. Let's not forget these are derivatives and settled for cash not actual barrels of oil.
It's contrived of course to bring economic pain (otherwise why bother) and why Russian (and China and several other states) would like to see the end of petrodollars and they have begun their efforts - I believe Russia has traded with China outside of US$ pricing.
Never a fan of conspiracy theories but this part is out in the open political intervention and will eventually (soon?) be lifted - don't want to hurt the US domestic producers too much as shale needs higher oil prices.
To the example of NSE vs AKK. I held (note past tense) NSE for the Canning Super Basin and was flabbergasted when it took on the EFS (in Atascosa county no less). Wrote plenty on that forum. There's a lot more to looking at boe flow rate per million spent. Like maybe look at the EUR vs avg F&D cost per well (so half cycle would be the 3 yr avg D&C. Full cycle starts to add in cost of acreage, seismic and all costs that go into the "Finding and Developing Cost". The other sides are the IRR - which tends to be a little bit of "point in time" but try to estimate the payback and overall return based on the decline curve (and while EUR may be stated as 20 or 30 yrs, we should (by now) be familiar that when the time value of money is discounted back to its present value, there is not much point going beyond 10 years. SEC only allows 10 yr PV based in NyMEX strip pricing). Then location (discount or premium to which index) and product (how much oil, gas and NGLs and can you sell it all?) need to be factored.
Like I said I held NSE. I've made my choice between the two. I also hold LNR (for different reasons and acquired them after my AKK holding).
One thing very different in the US versus elsewhere is the midstream infrastructure (and where I'm doing particularly well with companies like Kinder Morgan, Transcanada, Enbridge and the like). These guys provide the "toll roads" (pipelines, storage, tankers,...) to get hydrocarbons to market (refineries, chemical plants, utilities, etc). They are not exposed to the commodity price.
So I think Brent will dip into the $80s. WTI is there already. It will be a testing time for E&P companies. Those that have their house in order will make hay when oil price strengthens again. Will HK prosper and survive or not? Who knows.
I guess that's why we call it risk capital and speculation.
AKK Price at posting:
1.7¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
