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youre obviously the genius captain obvious. Maybe you ought just...

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DaceC

568 Posts.

105

01/06/23

13:54

Post #: 68079784
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Originally posted by 2ic: ↑

Coburn is really struggling here, well beyond the time they should have hit nameplate in the wet plant at minimum. DFS had them starting in best grade area as you expect, with first two years producing 250ktpa HMC (note add 5% HMC to sum of VHM products). This chart was 2019 DFS, which is ~2ktpa lower than 2020 DFS update.

So after 6 months after declaring commercial production (an official term in finance contracts when a company says they are at effective ramped up production) mid Nov, they have averaged <10kt per month HMC at $10M per month revenue (pre royalties I assume). Should be running at >20kt per month HMC and $17M per month revenue, not withstanding that min sand prices are currently ~30% higher than assumed 2020 DFS Update (ie should be making ~$22M per month, although that assumes the dry plant is producing final product by now).

Simply and horribly under budget this far on with unresolved issues, and I'm not sure they have ever told us what the quality of HMC or recoveries of VHM is? Can't keep going like this for ever obviously...

Below chart from 2020 DFS Update forecast $200M first 12 months

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youre obviously the genius captain obvious. Maybe you ought just sell. Oh, wait...
2 Upvote

0 Great analysis

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