From the time these guys started working on Sky Broadband with...

From the time these guys started working on Sky Broadband with Vocus NZ (now Orcon) to the time they do a mass release of the new Set Top Box it will be about two years.

Two Years to update their CRM tool so that they can add internet customers and release an Android Box (where most of the streaming functionality should come OOTB anyway). It's just too long - they are being too cautious. Trying to get everything 'perfect' before release.

Obviously we don't want them to go to the other end of the spectrum where they rush everything to get a fast release, but 2 years for a couple of medium-complexity projects is just nuts. We need to be able to move much faster than this if we are to be able to readily responsd to the rapidly changing media landscape.

Same goes for the property sale. If Colliers aren't delivering the goods they need to ride them hard - make them earn their eventual commission. If Colliers still can't get it done then they should have been sacked and someone else brought in.

With regards to the rejected 23cps opening offer made in June...I did 'umm and ahhh' a bit before I posted that question. On one hand, I don't want to put so much pressure on them that they do something stupid...I am not looking for a pyyrich victory here.
But on the other hand, for the last couple of years I feel that these guys have just had soft-ball questions from the so-called analysts at Jarden and Morningstar...they have not had to sweat under any real scrutiny. I think that can foster lazy thinking.

So I decided enough was enough, time to fire some 'hard ball' questions and remind them that some of their shareholders are watching very closely.

The reality is, if The Board negotiated (as opposed to reject the offer outright) they would have ended up around 26/27cps. The 'standard formula' for PE is to offer 30% to the current SP, negotiate and do due diligence and end up at 50% or so above the SP depending on how much they like what they see. The SP at the time was 17.5cps.

A number of shareholders would have been happy to at least have the option to consider a 50% premium to the SP (regardless of whether that left them in profit or a loss - it would have been an option to get out and skip the rest of the ride). But it also would have allowed for other parties to come in and bid for Sky once it was 'in play'.

We get deep into speculative territory here...but if Sky was being sold for NZ$472M...it is likely that some other players would have been interested. I know that the 'two Marks' at Orcon and 2D both see Sky as a key asset for them in order to tackle Spark. Their plan right now may be to just get wholesale streaming deals with Sky...but if Sky was in play, could they make a move? Would they be willing to pay $500M (28.5cps)? I don't know...but I think probably. I think paying $500M -$600M for Sky would be absolute chump change relative to what Sky is actually worth to them in terms of providing competitive advantage...

Then there is Vodafone...they have a warm relationship with Sky...if a competitor was going to buy Sky would they take another look? No way to know for sure if they would bid, but I can't see them being happy with a competitor taking control over an important asset like Sky.

And there are a myriad of other players and possibilities where we see Sky end up going for 30cps+ in a bidding war scenario.

I think this was a course that The Board probably should have pursued. Get their investment bankers to earn their pay and make a bidding war happen and go from there.

But they elected not to because the opening offer was low...and in doing so, Bowman has really set the value that he now needs to get Sky above within the next 12 months.

If we get to $3/share by this time next year...we are actually probably worse off than if he had of just worked with the offer he had in June 2021 to work the market and get a deal done.

He actually needs to exceed $3/share by a good margin, and quickly, to do better than what we could have had this year.

I think this is a very important point, and all shareholders need to be consciously aware of it. If the buyback+ divvy declaration next year causes the SP to 'rocket' 50% from where it is now to $2.85/share shareholders should not feel too grateful to Bowman. He will need to do significantly better than that now that he has (unintentionally) set the bar.