Ann: Sky Investor Day, page-27

Glad to be of service @Rustycage! Some of the ST crowd are losing their minds a bit because the SP dropped and Spark Sport won the rights to the League World Cup.

It's just not how a business owner would think/behave imho.

With regards to your question around weighted probability for the three scenarios...well, I don't have precise % numbers like that in mind.

But what I can say is this:

1. Wholesale deal - well this is a 100% certainty given we already have the deal in place with Vocus. Regardless of anything else, this partnership is great and will continue to grow.
2. Takeover - I think this is highly unlikely. Nobody in their right mind would offer anything above 30c/share for Sky given where the SP is trading at. And I don't think the Board could seriously recommend anything below 35c/share. Given how much the business earns (and most likely prospects out into the future) a takoever would need to be closer to 40c/share in my view. Nobody would offer anything like that.
3. Merger - not sure how 'likely' this is. But I do believe Sky needs to merge with a telco. Vocus is an obvious choice, but there could be opportunities with 2Degrees too. I think this is the most likely path forward, and I have outlined my rationale previously. A reasonable set of relative values still needs to be established, but Sky shareholders could work with a value that is 'statistically low' given earnings etc, and still come out better off as the market rerates the new Sky 2.0 Telco business.

Not sure if that really answered your question - but I am keen for option 3!