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So no growth in EBITDA and another net loss for the year, not...

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Dhukka

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24/10/19

12:29

Post #: 41048569
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Originally posted by ualeon: ↑

Excellent result this quarter. All things coming along nicely This quarter is EBITDA positive (basically cash flow positive) and SKF expects to maintain that going forward.

Reading more into the quarterly we see that SKF grew it's recurring revenue organically (excluding the acquisition) which is a good sign. Also some big contract wins. IMO not announcing these as they occur is a smart move. The company is currently in a land grab race due to the fragmented nature of the industry and is doing everything correctly by my books.

Looking at high level trends -we see that in FY18 we had $6.2m in revenue which grew by 52% to $9.4m in FY19.

So what next potentially:

Doing some back of the envelope calculations, I get the his:
Not taking into account additional revenue growth in the recurring stream and assuming the other 2 streams remain on par with FY19, we will have a $12.32m forFYE20 which is a 31% increase from last FY.
If we assume a 10% increase in recurring revenue for each of the 3 upcoming quarters in FY20 and assume that the other 2 revenue streams are on par with FY19, I get FYE20 at $13.6m which represents a 45% increase from FY19
Of course this does not take into account any potential acquisitions or up sell opportunities which I think we will begin to see going forward as our client list grows.

My predication is that we will see revenue increase in the range of 30% to 50% in FY20 and hopefully a healthy EBTIDA of $0.8m to $1.0m.

IMO DYOR etc etc

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So no growth in EBITDA and another net loss for the year, not particularly inspiring. This company needs to show some operating leverage at some point for it to trade significantly higher.
SKF Price at posting: 16.5¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
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