MiStragic, agree with a lot of what you say. Commercial real estate so far as regional banks in the US go, is a ticking time bomb. Lots of zombie banks in the US are tetoring and the FED wont be able to bail all of them out. FED talks tough about high rates for longer with hints of a possible hike later in the year. Personally l think they are done, but they wont pivot and reduce until something breaks. Unlike Australia, most American 30 year mortgages are locked into fixed low rates and are largely insulated from the current high rates we see quoted daily. Also, the supply side is low. High rates and over supply are the hallmarks of a property bubble, but that is not the American home market picture so US domestic real estate collapse is basically off the table. Australia, on the other hand does appear to have a problem. Aussie mortgages can only be fixed for short periods of time, so l suspect motgage stress is potentially a problem in this country if we were to get a second wave of sustained higher inflation. I dont think thats an imminent problem right now because rate hikes are done for now.
The US domestic economy is on the brink of a presipice, but the market and the bureacrats refuse to acknowledge it because they are either measuring the wrong things or simply covering them up. Rest assured, all will come to light soon enough. The fact that the US dollar is so strong simply blew my mind until l watched a tutorial on the global economy. People need to understand that the US domestic economy and the dollar outside America in common circulation are not related. The American domestic economy can be a basket case, while the RESERVE CURRENCY can be quite vibrant, which is what we are currently seeing. The US bond market is offering attractive interest rates right now which is pulling foreign capital into the system and proping up the dollar. The bond yield curve is still inverted and this is a CARDINAL indicator of looming resession. There is a lag factor that varies, but 6-8 months is a mean time frame looking at charts back to the 1970's. Q2 2024 is mooted as when the proverbial hits the fan.
The fact that gold has traded in the US $1900 dollar band range for so long while the US dollar has been appreciating is astounding. Historically they are counter cyclical. Whats different now is a measure of different things. Golbally, reserve banks are actively buying gold at an unprecidented rate. Why? Maybe they have seen what the Americans have done to their own currency by so much printing that it is debased to the point of being worthless. Hence the purchases of gold reserves for a storm brewing that will give their own currencies some credibility. Secondly, investors are highly suspicious about the FED's version of the truth about the true state of the American domestic economy, so they are buying gold as a hedge. Sure, there is a small sell off as the dollar gets stronger but its strength is just transient. The daily noise in the market. Talk of impending recession has been going on all 2023 and nothing has happened - in fact, the opposite. Bull market in equities continues and dollar gets stronger, FED says all is healthy and Morgan Freman says chances of even a soft landing are reduced to just 15%.
lm not concerned in the least. Gold can get sold down to US $1800 for all l care, because its not going to make any difference to the impending outcome. Much higher gold prices in the reasonably near future. Those in the know and who prepare will profit. Many are going to lose their shirts and a lot more. History just repeating itself. Sorry about the sermon, but l feel passionatley about my Red 5 holding and gold in particular.
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