OK 4 months = ~120 days = 120,100 Net BO & 1,999,200 Mcf gas = $3,482,900 + $4,998,00 = $8,480,900 of REVENUE. To get to their $5.9M of Production Income means costs = $2,580,900
Converting to BOE (for convenience momentarily) I get 453,300 BOE and Cash Production cost = $5.70/Boe ... based on 4 months at those rates/prices.
If I go back to the AGM ov Nov'19 presentation, slide 18, gas production estimate is given. It looks a very linear step change of and additional 2 Bcf each Qtr (and above is 2Bcf for 4 mths) ... corresponding to each G1/2/3/well. Slide 19 has a fairly steady NET production rate ~23,000Mmcfpd.
So I'm thinking, for modelling, going with 15,000 Mmcfpd (2 wells), and no decline for the short term. That would put annualized gas production at ~5,475,000Mmcf (~5.5Bcf) ... sort of fits the new model
I do have to stress though I am not looking for an exact answer. For example the BTU conversion - doesn't matter to me because I can adjust for that with price in the model (which is what happens anyway ... get a premium for higher heating content). Even production volume is adjusted for in the model ... its given a mean value (say 5,475,000Mmcf)
I'm going to put the complete models up in separate post (seeing as you are enjoying that aspect). Hopefully it wont be too confusing.
BYE Price at posting:
19.0¢ Sentiment: None Disclosure: Not Held
