>I think BYE is a target for a US local buyer down the...

>I think BYE is a target for a US local buyer down the track.

Wouldn't that be nice? But I don't see his happening. If you check the futures market for LL you will see that the $US100+ oil per barrel horizon has moved from 12 months to 4months. This means that the futures market believes that the future price of oil is sub 100 and we are just in an aberration period which will be corrected. Perhaps when Russia loses the Ukraine war and comes back, cap in hand? or we get over the COVID supply hump? and things get back to normal. Why would someone do a hostile take over of BYE when the market sees her oil product going down in price and the oil market itself to become a stranded asset?

Personally I do not see this future. As Russia, the biggest country in the world will never trust western markets again. This major force against inflation, that provided cheap fuel, cheap commodities at bargain prices is going or gone from the western system. Or at the very least can only be purchased through multiple middle men who each take a slice of the pie and add cost. The result will be a price shock which will gradually thread it's way through western society, resetting the relationship between fiat currency and product price. The great reset, if you wish to call it that. I note that BYE is still selling oil at a hedged $53. And I suspect other oil companies have done something similar. When those hedges reset. I expect there will be no place to hide from reality. The longer oil prices remain high, the longer inflation is baked into our future.

With fracking ramping up and 25% of the LNG shipping facilities being offline in the US I see the price of natural gas dropping as it is trapped in the US market. The US + Mexico have all the ingredient for a booming market. Cheap labour in Mexico, Cheap gas in the Permian, good technical knowledge in Silicon valley, finance know how in New York and 350 million "rich" consumers to lap it all up. I don't see the US$ losing it's reserve currency status just yet. Perhaps if the AU$ drops significantly, then BYE will become a hostile takeover opportunity, simply because it is priced in AU$?

All disclaimers. Badgers are notorious bad at predicting the future and should not be trusted.