Maybe giving their honest best estimates of the likely flowrates in the previous wells that nature has shown to have been optimistic has made them more cautious .
They would have a best estimate but it would be part of a large possible range of flows .
The sidetrack and the finding of better reservoir quality is a big plus for a decent flow from that zone but it is also a good reason to be very cautious about flowrates from that zone .
The quality of that zone changed over a relatively short distance .
There is uncertainty of the reservoir quality of that zone right down to the oil water contact that is required to achieve a good water drive .
There is a lot of oil downdip from data from previously drilled wells but there needs to be a decent water drive for that oil to flow economically and that depends on reservoir quality both above and below the down dip oil water contact .
Continuity of reasonable permeability between the well bore and the oil water contact and below it is necessary to produce the oil at a long term economical rate .
The bottom zone is only one of three potentially economically producible zones they have penetrated in this well .
Before the sidetrack the bottom zone appeared to have been a non productive zone .
The sidetrack has lifted its status at this point to a probable economically producible zone well worth completing .
As I have said before there is no certainty in oil well drilling and the roulette wheel is still spinning on this well but I still like the odds .
I am supportive of them not giving flow rate estimates pre drill or pre actual flow rates .
I am sure they were previously given in good faith .
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