BYE 1.67% 5.9¢ byron energy limited

Boysy,I am aware of the discrepancy between BYE and OEL SM71...

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    Boysy,
    I am aware of the discrepancy between BYE and OEL SM71 reserves.
    Another glaring error in your deductive ability.

    Unlike yourself, I like to get to the bottom of things, rather than jump to incorrect conclusions,IHence, wrote to Steve Herod on August 2nd, 2023.

    In response, Steve Herod (and Mark Lindh) arranged a Zoom (M/S Teams) meeting that took place at 8am, August 15th,2023.

    My correspondence to Steve Herod follows:

    Hi Steve (hopefully my guess of your e-mail is correct),

    Mike (in case this e-mail doesn’t make it to anyone else,although I’m happy for you to get involved)

    info@ottoenergy (in case it is being monitored now),

    Ref SM71 2020 BYE 6.0MMboe vs OEL 3.8 MMboe Net 3P Reserves

    Discrepancy of 2.2 is MMboe

    About Me

    My name is xxxxxxxxxxxxx; my mobile is xxxxxxxxxxxx;

    I have followed Otto Energy for several years, and onlyrecently started accumulating after the release of the 2022 Annual Report inOctober 2023.

    Current Shareholding

    My Otto Energy holding is in xxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxxx

    I currently own just over xxx million shares (about x.xx%of Otto), up from the xxx million held at the date of the most recentquarterly.

    Discrepancy Overview

    Bryon Net 3Pis 6.0MMboe as at June30th, 2020

    Otto Net 3P 3.8 MMboe a at June 30th, 2020

    Bothcompanies have an NRI of 40.065%

    Otto's 3P is 2.2 MMboe less than Byon's 3P.

    Bryon's3P figure is 58.75% higher than Otto's.

    There isalso a very large discrepancy in their respective Prospective Resourceestimates,

    My primary concern is that Otto is marketing SM71based on Reserves and Resources substantially below the true figure or mostlikely figure (as reported by Byron Energy).

    Thisdiscrepancy continued in the 2021 Reserve Reports with both companies makingcomparable relatively small negative revisions (Otto slightly more). Ottoused Ryder Scott in 2021 and 2022. I believe that the change to RyderScott may have been a financing requirement. Again, I am not sure.

    Ibelieve that the discrepancy continued into the 2022 Reserve Reports. Byron didn't report SM71 separately, so I can't be absolutely certain.

    Ibelieve that the most likely reason for the discrepancy is the quality of theseismic dataset being used by Ryder Scott versus Byron's much higher qualitydataset (provided by WesternGeCo) being used by Collarini Associates.

    I wouldimagine that compilation of Reserve Reports would be based on a standardisedset of methodologies.

    Thiswould be a requirement in order to give investors and industry participantsconfidence in the data being presented.

    ForReserve reports, it follows that Independent Expert Reports from differentproviders should be relatively close.

    The 58%difference between Ryder Scott and Collarini wouldn't meet the essential"credibility and reliability" test.

    However,the fact that they are using different datasets would be a credible explanationfor such a large variance.

    Comparison of 2020 Reserves

    Byron Net

    Otto Net

    BYE - OEL

    1

    OIL

    2

    Proved (1P)

    1,992

    1,251

    741

    3

    Probable Reserves

    2,079

    671

    1,408

    4

    Proved and Probable (2P)

    4,071

    1,922

    2,149

    5

    Possible Reserves

    1,275

    1,304

    (29)

    6

    Proved, Probable & Possible (3P)

    5,346

    3,226

    2,120

    7

    Total Prospective Resources

    8

    Best Estimate (unrisked)

    976

    313

    663

    9

    GAS

    10

    Proved (1P)

    1,341

    1,051

    290

    11

    Probable Reserves

    1,590

    490

    1,100

    12

    Proved and Probable (2P)

    2,931

    1,541

    1,390

    13

    Possible Reserves

    963

    1,764

    (801)

    14

    Proved, Probable & Possible (3P)

    3,894

    3,305

    589

    15

    Total Prospective Resources

    16

    Best Estimate (unrisked)

    19,813

    345

    19,468

    17

    MBOE (6:1)

    18

    Proved (1P)

    2,216

    1,426

    789

    19

    Probable Reserves

    2,344

    753

    1,591

    20

    Proved and Probable (2P)

    4,560

    2,179

    2,381

    21

    Possible Reserves

    1,436

    1,598

    (163)

    22

    Proved, Probable & Possible (3P)

    5,995

    3,777

    2,218

    23

    Total Prospective Resources

    24

    Best Estimate (unrisked)

    4,278

    371

    3,908

    Otto'ssignificant 2020 revisions.

    2020 OTTO

    1

    Oil (Mbbl)

    Remaining

    6/30/2019

    Production

    2019

    Additions &

    Revisions

    Remaining

    6/30/2020

    2

    Proved (1P)

    2,080

    378

    (451)

    1,251

    3

    Probable

    2,278

    (1,608)

    670

    4

    Proved+Probable (2P)

    4,358

    378

    (2,058)

    1,922

    5

    Possible

    1,092

    212

    1,304

    6

    Proved+Probable+

    5,450

    378

    (1,847)

    3,225

    7

    Gas (MMCF)

    Remaining

    6/30/2019

    Production

    2019

    Additions &

    Revisions

    Remaining

    6/30/2020

    8

    Proved (1P)

    1,581

    338

    (191)

    1,052

    9

    Probable

    1,473

    (983)

    490

    10

    Proved+Probable (2P)

    3,054

    338

    (1,175)

    1,541

    11

    Possible

    756

    1,008

    1,764

    12

    Proved+Probable+

    3,810

    338

    (167)

    3,305

    13

    MBOE

    Remaining

    6/30/2019

    Production

    2019

    Additions &

    Revisions

    Remaining

    6/30/2020

    14

    Proved (1P)

    2,343

    434

    (483)

    1,426

    15

    Probable

    2,524

    (1,771)

    753

    16

    Proved+Probable (2P)

    4,867

    434

    (2,254)

    2,179

    17

    Possible

    1,218

    380

    1,598

    18

    Proved+Probable+

    6,085

    434

    (1,874)

    3,777

    Thefollowing commentary from Otto's 2020 Reserves report, to my non-expert eye,doesn't seem to explain the magnitude of the downward revisions in the report(and summarised in the above table).

    https://hotcopper.com.au/data/attachments/5628/5628110-f4d000016024340f7884922ac2645f32.jpg

    Whathappened in 2020.

    ByronReserve Report Released

    10Sept 2020 - BYE Net Reserves and Resources at 30 June 2020

    4 dayslater Mike Utsler appointed CEO and MD.

    14 Spet 2020APPOINTMENT OF CHIEF EXECUTIVE OFFICER AND

    10 dayslater Otto released 2020 Reserves Report

    24 Sept 2020 OELANNUAL RESERVES AND RESOURCES STATEMENT

    Otto'sSM71 3P Reserves were 2.2 MMboe lower than Byron's.
    1 day later Byron issued their explanation for this significant difference.

    25Sept 2020 BYE SM71 Reserve Statement and Clarification

    In anutshell, Byron stated that

    1. Prior to 2020, Otto and Byron both used Collarini Associates, and both reports were based on the Byron's sophisticated dataset.
    2. In 2020 Otto decided to use Collarini Energy Experts. A company that has no affiliation with Corallni Associates.
      My comment:
      1. This was a very traumatic time for Otto: they were broke; nearly went belly up; management change; etc.. I suspect that the decision to dump the previous Byron-Otto shared process may have been to save money.
      2. It is plausible, during this period of upheaval, that Otto intended to employ Corallini Associates using Otto's older dataset, and perhaps inadvertently contacted and contracted the similarly named Corallini Energy Experts.
    1. Byron claim that their proprietary seismic is superior to that used to compile Otto's reserve report.
      This is obviously the case.
      Byron make the point that SM71 is an old field, and it was not until BYE, using their proprietary seismic processing that the current producing accumulations were identified as having potential.
    2. There is a significant difference in interpretation of the F5 well result.

    Reserve Reports

    Otto Energy

    Byron Energy

    1

    2019

    19 Sept 2019 OEL Reserves

    19 Sep 2019 BYE Reserves

    2

    2020

    24 Sept 2020 OEL Reserves

    10 Sept 2020 BYE Reserves

    3

    25 Sept 2020 BYE SM71 Reserve Clarification

    4

    2021

    9 Sept 2021 OEL Reserves

    28 Sep 2021 BYE Reserves

    5

    2022

    23 Aug 2020 OEL Reserves

    14 Sep 2022 BYE Reserves

 
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