hi Stumpytrunks,an analyst who visited Byron and the costs were...

hi Stumpytrunks,

an analyst who visited Byron and the costs were estimated by the analyst: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4249970-byron-energy-micro-cap-oil-producer-upside-potential

The analyst estimated the costs were "$15/bbl plus $30". He spent time with the business and I am using his figures accordingly. I am unsure why you call this "fallacy". You say that my "math does not stack up". You explain Byron's costs as "low cost operations".

Respectfully, please, answer the following questions so that I understand where you are coming from:

1. what is your estimate of cost plus transport?
2. How much is this in total pbbl, based on your estimates?
3. Why do you believe the analyst in SeekingAlpha is wrong and you are right?
4. Did you also, like this analyst, visit the rig and stayed there observing? If not, what page of the recent public update/report you are using to support your figures?

It seems that you missed the point, once again, by saying "you think the oil price is going to go down and that you don't think BYE is a great investment for that reason". To pinpoint my core message, I do not feel it is wise to own energy shares while the oil/gas prices are dropping and will be going down towards $40. As you might be aware, energy shares have high beta to oil/gas price and this magnifies upside in prices as well as downside in prices, depending where oil is heading.

Lastly, you said "Whilst BYE would lose value in a poor oil price environment, it would survive". I agree that it will survive. The part of your statement "lose value in a poor oil price environment" is also correct. This is exactly what I am trying to say. Investors prefer to buy, timing wise, after "lose value" phase is over. That's why I said I'd look at energy stocks again in Jan/Feb 2020 after the oil/gas prices bottom out. I simply cannot afford to hold somwthing knowing it is expected to "lose value but survive".