I know this is getting off topic but give me some leeway.
Imagine a continuation of the strong dollar, weak gold correlation. Not always the case but more often than not.
Now imagine a Trump win. What does that do to the USD. Its extremely USD bullish. Why? Because 60 % of the USD index is the Euro. A Trump victory would see huge capital out flows from the Eurozone and into the USD. Thats short term bad for gold and ergo the miners.
Not so much an issue for TRY over the next few months as the gold loan is repayed, but once thats done and Smarts UG is going, what does future hedging look like?
Ultimately I think you are right. By hook or by crook the Fed managed to weld the US markets on to cheap money. If Trump wants his markets to keep going up, gold will follow. At this point a falling stock market in the US is akin to a national security concern.
As a result of that alone, Im bullish gold. TRY is my leveraged bet on that. Doesnt change the fact that short term, the world is floating in a sea of potential risk events. A unexpected sharp correction in gold has the potential to hurt TRY especially if the funding for Smarts UG isnt sorted beforehand. Sentiment can be a real B****.
Thats why these awesome drill results were not rewarded with a SP above 20c, at least not yet. Question is, In what order do these things happen, eg, reserves statement viz gold price movement. For TRY, theres still a small period of time before Christmas where risk events matter.
Post that, Im betting things are better. But thats just me.
TRY Price at posting:
15.5¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
