I don't see SML being a takeover target for at least a few years if ever.
As you say A2M won't allow for as long as they have their supply agreement in place. Things may change when Matuara is producing consumer ready finished goods in a few years - at which point A2M will have bought more manufacturing. After All they have to do something with the huge pile of cash they have.
SML may need to have some concerns about Happy Valley Nutrition on the Waikato. They now have resource consents for factory construction started. Land is sorted. They have 4 non binding supply Agreements which will see 50% of 3 year plant capacity and they are in contractual negotiations with an international Infant Milk Formula brand owner for 25% capacity. Could this be be A2M. If so production at Happy valley would coincide around the same time Mataura consumer ready products were produced - which would potentially make Synlait redundant. Especially if A2M decided to through n a couple of hundred $mill to assist with production. In an area where Happy Valley is targeting A2 milk suppliers.
2023 - 2025 will be an interesting period as it gives farms a few more years to convert herds to A2. A2M can then basically take milk from cow to market with no middle man. It gives time for factories and product to get China certifications - especially if Happy Valley do a deal in part with, say, Chinese interests.
And what would Synlait do then with all their capacity? Essentially become a cheap as chips commodity supplier oper for business a the very lowest of margins.
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I don't see SML being a takeover target for at least a few years...
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