Thought I’d try to summarize where I think we’re at. I’m no...

Thought I’d try to summarize where I think we’re at. I’m no expert and this is just my opinions, so please feel free to correct anything you think I’ve got wrong. As I haven’t seen any announcements about the supply contracts which were due to start July 1st, then I’d assume that the date for COE supplying into their contracted customers will be pushed back, maybe for another month? Production rates from the latest restart ramped up to 40TJpd, which has been consistent for the last few days. IF they now have a new 30+ day window, then I don’t expect to see a sudden spike in production up to name-plate numbers but rather a measured process. APA will have an objective to get to consistent big supply numbers with minimal downtime. They wouldn’t need to try to get to 68Tjpd over the next coupla days. APA receives no processing fees until both parties are satisfied that the test outcomes are satisfactory and I think they’re still liable to pay Liquidated damages until the contracted target of 68TJpd is consistently met. Right now COE is supplying about 40Tjpd to their contracted customers at spot prices with no processing fees going to APA. Even at low spot prices, all COE pays out is transport costs. Customers shouldn’t be too unhappy about getting gas at spot prices. So what are the cons of buying in today? Given that we’re now around 12 months late on the plant being on line, we’re clearly seeing a fair bit of investor fatigue and possibly the same impatience and potential disinterest from analysts. Also, we’re unsure of the timing and size of any significant remedial work which may be needed. If the two absorber units need to be setup in parallel rather that in series, then that would take a few weeks, (Do it in summer when demand is lower?) but that’s on APA to fund. So what are the pros of buying in today? I suspect that when the plant is producing as designed, we’ll look back on a 36c entry price as pretty damn good. The current price of 35-36c does also seems to be a bit of a ‘floor’ price on the charts’ I'm not an expert or adviser so please, DYOR