Trying to do a bit of crystal ball gazing now. DYOR. What is the...

1. Trying to do a bit of crystal ball gazing now. DYOR. What is the likely short term outlook? This is guesswork on my part but I suspect that in part, APA are currently trying to figure out what is the sustainable output from the plant in it's current configuration. I suspect they're not too optimistic about getting to sustainable 68Tjpd in the short term. 45Tjpd seems sustainable, and maybe anything much over that causes issues? If I'm right, then APA tells COE soon what they can produce and commit to, then COE would be able to rejig their timelines and supply contracts to suit. The next step would be a capital works plan to re-arrange or augment the plant to get to the target, probably in early summer. APA are still on the hook for liquidates damages but these charges and the toll fee payable on the 45Tjpd may be slightly modified, but COE is in a strong negotiating position. APA will probably commit to 40-43 Tjpd, giving themselves a little wiggle room on daily production. The gas is still where we left it, even though early production will be slower than we expected. We'll get it out of the reservoir and sell it at good prices but over a slightly longer time frame. Even if COE sells Orbost gas at 40Tjpd for the next 6 months, it still increases their daily sales from 15Tjpd across the company to around 55-60. How will the market react if this unfolds? It depends on whether the market doesn't like the bad news or whether they like the uncertainty diminishing. Happy to get feedback / alternative star-gazing......