"Forager sold 10 million shares at average of 0.207 in April. Can we assume that they will be sellers at 0.21?"
I cannot say what Forager will do, but it would be normal for there to be a gain-of-control premium. When Forager sold at 20.7 cents, a month ago, they were not selling into a takeover, whereas now they would be. Somers' bid should include a premium for gaining control. If Forager could get 20.7 cent a month ago, why would they sell the rest of their shares into a takeover for just 21 cents? As of the last notice, Forager were still holding 11.75% of the shares in TGA. If Forager are still holding more than 10% of the shares, they can block compulsory acquisition of all the shares and thereby block the takeover. In other words, Forager would still have a blocking stake.
As noted by radman41, would Somers sell all their shares for 21 cents? I think not. Thus far, every share traded since the offer has traded above the offer price. I think the market is sending a message to Somers. The pressure is now really on the non-Somer's directors as they have to come out and say whether the bid is fair. Will the non-Somer's directors find an accounting firm willing to write a report saying that they consider 21 cents to be fair and reasonable? Possibly, but if they do, it will be a transparently risible opinion.
What Somers have offered thus far, is pure brass neck opportunism.
BTW, because this is an on-market bid, I wondered if that negated the requirement for a bidder's and a target's statements, but not according the reference below.
"Despitethe offers being made on-market, a bidder’s statementand target’s statement still needs to be prepared in amarket bid." Page 32
