TGA 0.00% $1.17 thorn group limited

Ann: Somers Limited on-market takeover bid for Thorn Group Limit, page-13

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  1. swc
    69 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 41
    As others have noted Somers offer is a low ball bid with no takeover premium.
    Forager with 11.75% shareholding can block a compulsory takeover.
    Strong recovery in the Australian economy in the past 12 months means a likely larger writeback of credit loss provisions/ receivables impairments then forecast as at 31 March 2021, resulting in a boost to nta ( 28.0c ) show in the FY21 accounts.
    ( "Shifty" Somers hiding future cashflows by overly conservative provisions on receivables ? )
    Strong operating cash flow in the next 12 months as 66% of receivables are less than 1 year if weighted by contractual cash flows.
    ( Somers using much lower "expected cashflows" in current assets pushing rest into non-current assets )
    Minority shareholders forgo franking credits if they sell on market.

    The following figures are from Appendix 4E for FY21.
    Gross Receivables= $271.0M
    Impairments= $74.4M
    Net Receivables=$196.6M

    Expected writeback of credit loss provisions:
    Baseline case=$10.5M
    Faster recovery in the economy=$20.5M

    Given the strong improvement in the economy over the last 12 months writeback of impairments could be between $20.5M and $74.4M .
    At $20.5M this adds 6.1c to nta=28.0c .
    OR assuming 50% of $74.4 adds 11.0c to nta.
    gives a more realistic nta between 34.1 c and 39.0c .

    Franking credits = 8.3c per share.
    These credits could be distributed by an OFF market takeover bid with part of the bid being paid by a special fully franked dividend.
    This probably needs ATO approval but I have seen it done in the past.

    Receivables runoff = big operating cash flow in the next 12 months.
    Weighted by contracted cash flows <1yr $123.7M 1-5yrs $63.7M ( before derivatives p31 of Appendix 4E)
    Weighted by expected cash flows <1yr $ 67.1M 1-5yrs 129.5M ( see current and non current assets)

    Last edited by swc: 20/06/21
 
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