Thanks again for your analysis. But just to kick the tyres on a couple of points you made:
You say Genova, which signed up at the end of FY22, can be expected to generate $2.7m per month for Microba but you then forecast that Microba will only generate revenue as low as $20m in FY24. It seems to me that either the Genova figure is either too high or is from an outyear or the overall figure is overly conservative (2.7 x 12 >> 20). I would have thought the Middle East would start contributing at some point in the next 17 months and then there is Sonic who have put their money where their mouth will be.
On the point about the possible licensing after the IBD phase 1 trial: My understanding is that phase 1 only looks at safety and focus why would that be enough to sign up a billion dollar agreement? And where did you get that range of $500m to $2b from? Ditto for $30m upfront? Particularly that last figure seems unusually precise.
I suspect there will not be a great flow of positive news from Microba for a while which will allow doubts to fester. Challenging assumptions is a good practice but without facts those who choose to challenge are no more certain to be right than those who choose to accept. I'm not sure there are too many actual facts yet available about whether Microba is onto the next big thing in medicine. Hopefully the facts will start emerging in the not too far distant future.
MAP Price at posting:
33.0¢ Sentiment: Hold Disclosure: Held
(20min delay)