as ive been suggesting, i think an expansion in size is...

as ive been suggesting, i think an expansion in size is probably/maybe sub optimal as an outcome. definitely not more than 2Mtpa imo

biggest key on that is usually the cost of finance however - esp any debt finance piece

BML (and most of the other asx developers you probably hold bar EQE) have missed the early stage pre capex inflation window

largely because inflation has come into capital items really quickly this cycle - much faster than prior cycles

an offshore consulting mining mgr I know told me capex items for his current projects have increased 20-40% since last year

thats not as much of an issue for gold/silver projects because gold/silver generally price as inflation multpliers on trend ie mine income rises from price always outstrip inflation, as a trend

but it is an issue for majority base metal projects by volume - because industrial metals are less inflation resistant, esp lead/zinc - historically speaking.

though each cycle is somewhat unique

bigger sorby hills throughput - lower % silver revenue + higher proportion of capex goes against lead - which has a higher capex requirement due to its voluminous nature

I wont make any assumptions at this point - particularly if there's a lot of 4% debt finance on offer

but there's every chance that any capex quotes received ~now are only 70-80% of what actual final real cost will end up being - same as I expect last year's capex items would cost more if ordered now

once the pre capex inflation window passes- the key is to get into production soonest with a sweet IRR

once capex starts moving up really fast - the financial risks of going into production in a given cycle increase significantly