If someone wants to make a move on STX, I don't think it will happen until after the gas reservation policy update in August, because that announcement has the potential to derail any bid by changing the fundamental value attributedto the in ground reserves being sought after.
However, if there is an interested party I think they will move swiftly after the policy announcement in August, where everyone can more fairly assess the value of reserves.
Any potential acquirer is not going to want to sit around watching STX progress to FID on a power station which will consume the SE reserves. I recall Stuart targetting around November for the FID? So that puts a window on any M&A as I see it.
I think any potential acquirer of STX is purely interested only for the gas reserves, to support their own business plan - that is, gas feed for their own operations, or to supply some domestic and potential LNG export markets. I don't think any potential acquirer is interested in buying SE reserves that are tied up for a peaking power station that they will then have to operate as a non-core asset.
So my take is - potentially a bid to come in September.
Regardless, I am very happy that STX have shown this initiative to move forward with a plan to monetise the SE reserves that they have found. I think most other companies would rather just sit on what they have, hoping to one day expand on the reserves through further exploration and appraisal. This swift move displays to the market that we don't need to be, nor are inerested, in being bought out. We have a plan to generate a return from the reserves we have and the funding to make in happen. So anyone in the meantime eyeing off our reserves is going to have to pay up and go hostile. Should some M&A be tabled, our position is so much stronger than the likes of WGO who just sat there for a year with a for sale sign up in the air.
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