Just getting back from some holidays/Fastnacht Carnival break....

Just getting back from some holidays/Fastnacht Carnival break. Holy Sheet! Blood on the floor!
That's a pretty crazy market reaction to SE2/3 announcements. Am down (on paper) a f&*king scary amount in multi $millions.

Perth Basin is all the same Geology (give or take) and its interesting on the one hand, there is radio silence coming out from BPT and MIN on their drilling activities. They aren't exactly knocking it out of the park with their multiple drilling failures/hitting fizzy gas, But STX announces and we get hammered.

I did a quick reccy on my model to remove ALL further SE value (ie 0 contingent conversion) and I come up with 31 CPS current STX value.
Seems well and truly overdone IMHO. SE2 & 3 were only worth about 9 cents!!
Have mentioned before am a long termer and seen 5 cents a couple of times. This is the O&G space. Not for the faint hearted.

I guess I am already looking forward to what is coming in the tank (at least 4 more drills by end of year):

• W7 looks to be the quickest and smartest use of Capital to increase reserves and make some good money
• 25tj/d could go to 40 ($130mm revenues) in quick fashion
• Maybe there is even a big fat W8 in there......
• Ocean Hill - The 3D can't happen soon enough!! Drill a hole in that this year - +20 CPS
• Next WE drills (x2) - Would love to see a really strong Hancock/STX team approach. Combined fired power and win:win - +18CPS.
• WA Govt needs to be supporting on shore PB gas companies, now more than ever, to drill and export, otherwise there is going to be an even bigger supply crunch based on recent failure rates (BPT, MIN and STX)

Just looking at Walyering + WE only, I see 45tj/day contracted from a total of 90tj/day reserves. Thats only 50%, leaving the other 50% for STX to ink some more local gas sales agreements and/or export. If local sales agreements can be done at prices close to/equivalent to the netback LNG price, it's not going to matter either way...............

31+20+18 = 69 CPS by Xmas?? Fair value and excludes a TO premium.
No South Erregulla
No Eneabba
No Kadathinni/Arrino
No Haber etc

Go Strike!