First and foremost, I hope your surgery went well :)As for...

First and foremost, I hope your surgery went well

As for timings, it is difficult to attach a specific timeline for O&G companies as things shifts a lot. Personally, I am more event driven than timeline driven. The key events are very well-documented here... namely upcoming drills to add more reserves, lifting production from Walyering once it is connected to DBP, commercialisation of SE1 reserves, proving up OH, and development of WE. At my current projections, STX should have WE online by 2027 and OH maybe 2028. SE may come online sooner if they can find a commercial pathway for a standalone development. Else it will be after 2027.

IMHO, part of the persisting price weakness is tied to expectation by the shorters of a potential CR if SE doesn't move forward as a standalone development, which will significantly lower its forward cashflow. So if there is a CR, the shorters will cover their positions by taking up a large chunk of the CR. I personally think the probability of a CR being required is v low in the next 12 to 18 months. But if OH appraisal proves to be a huge success, and the board chooses to develop it in conjunction with WE, then I think a CR may be required.

Currently, even though the equity is trading at a decent discount to fair value, I think there are several unknowns at this juncture for the market to be able to decisively move in any direction with conviction. Once we have the exploration results for W7 and ED1, and more importantly, the commercial development pathway for SE (a standalone development will add significant DCF valuation since it will be near term cashflow, thus eliminating speculations of CR), I think we will see a more decisive and convicted move.

Regardless of timeline, I am optimistic enough at current price levels to be topping up again. The risk with this type of potential long durarion trades is that some time, the market can stay irrational longer than we can remain solvent/liquid. So I must also emphasise that it is important for one's STX exposure to NOT be subjected to any debt servicing/cash liquidity calls that may force one to close their position before the price recovers.

Hope that helps

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