Hi Garant, fair points, it was a rant as confessed, happy to...

Hi Garant, fair points, it was a rant as confessed, happy to clarify. I'm probably too cynical, but it irks me when companies lay it on too thick and biased towards their situation. "Global Warming Potential Per Tonne Of Titanium Feedstock Type Produced"... I thought we were talking about scientific CO2 differentials, but really about Global Warming Potential Per Tonne (consider me triggered).
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I'm no expert in greenwashing lifecycle assessments of CO2 emissions, but I understand why green virtue signalling industry has sprung up and I the symbiotic nature of B2B relationships. When a company engages consultants to show off their green credentials in the best light, consultants are do so best they can within reasonable boundaries. Bit like when politicians conduct a senate review of something that went wrong... a lot depends on the terms of reference and who is tasked to report on it (conflict much). Sorry, I was triggered by the claim Ti-Slag pig iron bi-product was dirty waste in addition to all that Global Warming Potential...

Whether Greta or ESG virtue signalling investment funds, who missed the recent energy stock boom, like it or not the process is evolution not revolution (as Putin just proved). The standard of living, basic necessities for billions of people is at stake. Lowering emissions of the biggest polluters (coal, cement, petrol etc) makes a difference but in the scheme of things substituting much production doesn't. Should beef or milk be banned because cows are big methane belchers, replaced with plant products? It can't be done by government decree imo, the elegant and consensus solution is market driven CO2 reduction via a carbon tax.

Economic rationalism will replace the biggest, highest cost CO2 emitters with economic alternatives where they exist. Inflation or scarcity will be minimised when alternatives don;t, and the net total CO2 reduction will be achieved at a certain price at the cost of a certain amount of inflation. Maybe the new green industry is subsidised by governments (with money raised by the carbon tax) in addition to CO2 penalties, maybe the carbon tax.is used to compensate the poor against a higher cost of living. Either way, high enough carbon tax institute whatever speed of CO2 reduction real politic is willing and able to make. You may disagree, but assuming this future, the relevant questions are posed and answered regards the TiO2 industry below (imho).

What is the embedded carbon and tax impost between product alternatives?
For example, carbon tax hydrocarbon fuel (beyond existing fuel tariff's) and EV replacement of ICE vehicles speeds up because the cost difference between alternatives is already not great. Carbon tax plane flights and the price of plane flights simply goes up, there is current no realistic alternatives. It's obvious what a carbon tax will change short term and what stays the same while achieving desired net CO2 reduction. TiO2 pigment simply has few competitive, practical substitutes I know of. Some kaolin can be blended and maybe even quite a lot when TiO2 reaches a price point, but kaolin isn;t without carbon cost itself.

TiO2 pigment is what, $3000/t or so atm, given rutile is selling at $1500/t before pigment production costs plus profits that sounds fair. A few tonne of CO2 at whatever carbon price means the world deems fit probably won't cause $3000/t TiO2 pigment substitution when an extra $200 or so carbon tax is less than the price fluctuation over a year anyway. Let's assume TiO2 pigment isn't going anywhere soon, just getting more expensive to the consumer...

What is the embedded carbon and tax impost between TiO2 pigment feed alternatives?
Synthetic Rutile is an evolutionary dead end. It has no bi-product credits, is expensive and fraught with technical difficulties, requires a rare high TiO2 altered Ilmenite getting rarer, plus it emits more CO2/t of TiO2 than Ti-slag alternative. There is a good reason nobody ever built a new SR kiln past 30 years, and probably never will again.

I'm going to compare Ti-Slag with Rutile in the high-TiO2 feed market to make my point. Let's keep it simple and agree that Ti-Slag has extra 2t of CO2 embedded into the feed/production process than rutile despite that Ti-Slag can be viewed a CO2-free waste product from valuable pig-iron production. Let's assume a carbon tax of US75/t, they bounce around in speculative trading but at US$100/t then I personally know farmers who will convert land back to mally shrub and farm carbon rather than plant crops for a living (there's your food inflation).

One tonne of Ti-Slag requires two tonnes of ~50% TiO2 ilmenite feed, which itself cost ~$250/t in this boom compared to rutile at about $1400/t. So the feed cost for one tonne of Ti-Slag is $500/t, roughly comparable to a tonne rutile at $1400/t. The cost of 'slagging' the ilmenite is covered by the co-production of approx one tonne pig iron, which sells for about US$500/t atm. Ti-Slag sold to pigment producers has a large profit margin added of course, but unless my price assumptions are way pigment producers will use cheaper TiO2 feed units from Ti-Slag instead of rutile where they can.

If there is an over-supply of high grade TiO2 feed then Ti-Slag producers can drop the price very low and still sell while covering costs. If Ti-Slag has to carry an extra 2t and $150 of CO2 carbon tax so be it. Either Ti-Slag suppliers make less profit or the price of TiO2 pigment goes up for the consumer because there is not enough rutile to fill the gap if Ti-Slag closes down production .A year ago that 50% TiO2 ilm cost $200/t, a future over-supply dropping that ilm back to $200/t saves Ti-Slag producers $100/t which is 2/3 of a future carbon tax. Point is, a carbon tax will at best lift rutile a further $100-150/t but within the price fluctuation

Substitution
Reality is, the majority (approx 90%) of pigment plant feed is non-rutile (Ti-Slag, synesthetic rutile, high TiO2 ilmenite or Sulphate Route ilmenite etc) and rutile is the 'free rider' price taker over and above whatever the other TiO2 feed market is doing. There is barely enough rutile even with incentive pricing and new mines to maintain market share, couldn't increase pigment market share even if the world wanted to. The rutile price is driven as much by short term welding and metal producer demand as pigment demand, and only then because pigment producers are reticent to change a plants feed mix short term because of frictional efficiency losses.

Rutile is already desirable because it is higher grade, low contaminant feed that pigment plants are set up to process balance the feed mix. 95% TiO2 rutile at $1400/t costs the pigment plant $14.73/TiO2 unit. 90% Ti-Slag at $1100/t costs $12.20/TiO2 unit. The 50% TiO2 ilmenite Ti-Slag feed at $250/t costs $5/TiO2 unit, where the processing is almost covered by pig iron production. I'm not arguing rutile will be the beneficiary of a carbon tax, but that the low CO2 benefit will be competed back down or arbitraged away from Ti-Slag that moves from Sth African coal electricity to slagging with renewable energy for example.

Rutile is a small market prone to large swings with supply imbalance and substitution in pigment production long term. IMO, the high-TiO2 feed market long term will be priced according to the over/under supply of slag feed ilmenite, which determines the price and profitability of Ti-Slag production, which will dominates the TiO2 feed market and be the price setter for other feeds. Carbon tax may be a little kicker in favour of rutile over Ti-Slag, but that price bonus looks marginal compared to price fluctuation typical in the industry. Investors and bankers being asked to fund SVM in 3+ years time might feel good about funding a low carbon product, but they will be considering the future TiO2 feed demand/supply balance equation before parting with any money.

Look, if you and many others want to invest in SVM because they keep banging the drum about rutile being lower carbon to process into pigment than other TiO2 feeds then be my guest. Obviously this glossy presso, selected comparisons and consultants gravitas has done it's job, when I thought that point was made every single presentation and release for the past 2 years. I'm keeping a close eye on the overall TiO2 feed market. Next few years will be very interesting ... the competition is hotting up imo... DYOR

Good luck