SVM 3.81% 54.5¢ sovereign metals limited

"1) I notice that despite your misgivings, you seem to stick...

  1. 2ic
    5,651 Posts.
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    "1) I notice that despite your misgivings, you seem to stick around, indicating you still have some faith in the project. Can I ask why ? Not being clever, honest question."... i was clear about why I stick around, not for any maliscioous reasons

    Faith in the project?... personally not much even though on paper it is a winner. I read a lot about battery tech and my view is graphite will be replaced gradually then substantially over next 5-10 years. SVM will be breaaking records to complere PFS, DFS. permits anf get funding bedded down in 3 years,then 2 years to build and ramp into production. Potentially that leaves SVM stranded with large debt no profits and going broke. The market that isn;t concerned about graphite supply-demand now might be laseer focussed in 3 years time when other new graphite supply ramps up into well publicised next generation graphite-free anodes if not yet substantial demand destruction.

    Who will take the 'first-loss' equity funding risk component of development even if secured lenders are happy to step up for half? The risk for any project that relies on graphite revenue looks to get higher the longer into the future one looks, and 3 years to FID could easily be 2 years optomistic deaing with the African clock. To be clear I am not saying the project would not still be profitable the very botom of the rutile or graphite cost curve, bevause they would be. Rutile with such cheap graphite bi-product stream is genious, high margin and likley to be the last man standing end of a price war required to reduce over-supply. My concern is nobody ever wants to be part of a war they see coming whether or not you are ultimately on the winning side...

    In the cyclical resource industry this phenomenon of the lowesy cost, best project going undeveloped is refered to a 'the funding window closed'. Simply put, if the market sees over-supply and negative margin prices in the near future they will not get involved funding a junior even if eventuay that project looks to be a winner... I do wish this comapny the best of luck, no skin off my nose either way. JS is a really nice guy (even if he has his cake and eat with a vendor roylaty deal in addirtion to the usual 'incentive' perforamnce dshares etc. Shouldn;t a big fat royalty be incentive enough to get the project developed asap?)

    AIMHO, dyor, investing is very subjective, markets sentiment changes etc etc
 
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Last trade - 16.10pm 23/05/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
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