Markets

Gold’s Rally to $1,800 Sees ETF Inflows Exceed Full-Year Record

The metal could reach a record USD 2000 oz in the next 12 months

Ranjeetha Pakiam

8 July 2020, 11:51 am ACST Updated on 8 July 2020,

Traditional haven in favor as pandemic spurs investment demand

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Spot price reaches $1,800, the highest level since 2011

GC1

Gold

1,819.50

USD/t oz.

+9.60+0.53%

Gold’s allure is only getting stronger as 2020 unfolds. Spot prices reached $1,800 an ounce and year-to-date inflows into bullion-backed exchange-traded funds topped the record full-year total set in 2009. Investors have favored havens this year as the coronavirus pandemic rips through economies, spurring sustained inflows into gold-backed ETFs as central banks and governments unleash vast stimulus programs. States across the U.S. recorded new highs in cases and deaths on Tuesday, and Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta President Raphael Bostic said the resurgence of the virus may be threatening the pace of America’s recovery.

Yellow Brick Road

Year-to-date inflows into gold-backed ETFs have topped 2009's full-year record “A massive investor response to Covid-19 has pushed ETF holdings to record levels, the impact of which has outweighed the decline in jewelry demand and absorbed increases in recycling,” said James Steel, chief precious metals analyst at HSBC Securities (USA) Inc. Further inflows are expected “as investors respond to elevated risks and low yields,” he said in a note.

Holdings in gold-backed ETFs rose to 3,234.6 tons on Tuesday, according to initial data compiled by Bloomberg. That’s up 655.6 tons so far in 2020, topping the tonnage increase seen in 2009. The total has risen every month this year. Spot gold rose as much as 0.5% to $1,804.31 an ounce in London, the highest since September 2011, amid worries over the pandemic and new tensions between the U.S. an China. Spot silver touched $18.50, the highest in more than four months.

The intense focus on particular price levels, especially $1,800 in gold, risks “triggering some sooner-than-expected exhaustion in the market,” Ole Hansen at Saxo Bank A/S.

“Failure to close above and attract additional momentum buying could trigger profit taking and a better buying opportunity,” he said. “Overall, however, we see no reason why additional gains can not be achieved over the coming weeks and months.” Bullion prices and ETF holdings are widely expected to extend gains, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. saying the metal could reach a record $2,000 in the next 12 months and JPMorgan Chase & Co. recommending investorsstick with bullion.

“The near unprecedented fiscal and monetary peacetime response to Covid-19 supplies gold with two substantial bullish inputs: liquidity and debt,” HSBC’s Steel said. “Low interest rates, monetary accommodation including balance-sheet expansion and heavy fiscal spending globally for the foreseeable future will cement and extend gold’s rally.”

More Fed support may be on the way. Vice Chairman Richard Clarida said that policy makers would likely turn to additional forward guidance and asset purchases if the economy needs more aid. “There is more that we can do,” he told CNN International.

— With assistance by Elena Mazneva