Some key takeaways from this announcement in terms of setting expectations as to when this will impact the cashflow:
- Phase 1 is for a small portion of the total users of AgriChain (circa 10,000 users in total);
- Phase 1 revenue is expected to be $1.5m pa, of which $1.1m is attributable to SPX on the 75:25 revenue split with AgriChain;
- Phase 1 revenue is expected to commence in Q2 FY'24 (i.e. the December 1/4) - should be circa $275k per quarter once fully implemented;
- December 1/4 is probably unlikely to see the full $275k/quarter from Phase 1 as it'll be in the onboarding stage;
- Phase 2 to commence upon completion of Phase 1, Phase 2 rolls out to all AgriChain users and is anticipated to commence in early 2024.
- SPX's EPP to AgriChain's customers uses card-blended trade finance which is not reliant on SPX's debt warehouse and doesn't require first loss capital. therefore, there's fewer impediments to rapidly scaling the EPP from Phase 1 to Phase 2 as it's not inhibited by SPX's balance sheet.
Going by the timelines, I'd therefore expect to see this deal bring in about $275k in the March '24 1/4, but perhaps about half that number in the Dec '23 1/4.
I'd like to see an announcement when Phase 1 is complete and to tell us how many users were included in Phase 1 for the revenue generated. For example if Phase 1 is say 10% of users by trade value, then we can reasonably extrapolate the revenue that could potentially flow from Phase 2 roll out. For me this is an important detail to ascertain the potential value of the Phase 2 rollout from here.
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