EMS 12.5% 4.5¢ eastern metals limited

valuation for ems is 88c per share

  1. 6,669 Posts.
    STOCK TO WATCH
    16 June 2008

    Aequs Securities

    Superior Anti-Malaria Sublingual Treatment Nearing Commercialisation

    SPECULATIVE

    KEY POINTS
    Eastland Medical Systems (EMS) has completed Phase 1
    clinical trials of an anti-malaria drug called ArTiMistTM, which
    provides significant clinical benefits because it is delivered
    sublingually (i.e. under the tongue) and is an easier and more
    effective method of treating malaria patients.
    Results from Phase 1 trials show that the sublingual method
    provided a fourfold increase in bio-availability for ArTiMist. The
    sublingual route importantly avoids the first pass effect through
    the gut, which is one of the main reasons why tablets have a
    much lower bio-availability due to the massive interference by
    the gut enzymes.
    EMS is progressing to Phase 3 trials and management expect
    these to be completed by the first quarter of calendar 2009. EMS
    does not have to conduct Phase 2 trials, as external trials have
    already been undertaken on the tablet version of the drug
    currently available. Management believe commercialisation of
    ArTiMist is achievable by June 2009.
    HC Berlin Pharma AG will be the exclusive manufacturer of
    ArTiMist. Completion of the HC Berlin Pharma AG
    pharmaceutical plant in Germany is expected in the first half of
    calendar 2009.
    At full production, the plant in Germany is expected to
    manufacture 60 million units of ArTiMisf per annum. We expect
    the plant to reach full production by 2013 and have factored this
    into our valuation assumptions.

    Our base-case valuation for EMS is $0.88 per share, taking into
    account conservative assumptions on pricing and raw material
    costs and factoring in full production by 2013.
 
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