I share the same feelings :) But.. If I were to put on my...

I share the same feelings

But.. If I were to put on my optimistic hat, getting the second 100K bed licenses might be faster due to sucessful implementation in existing market being ANZ. Furthermore, international partners with greater resources compared to Painchek should enable faster implementation.

If anything, the way I see Painchek being implemented is having the Painchek product embedded in the distributor's products. In plain English, the partner will upsell to their existing customers -> Painchek would get like a royalty/subscription fee or something in that order. From my perspective, that is the best way to go to market. It is also the most cost effective.

I believe even incumbents that sell products in aged care were skeptical on Painchek and thus the company had to prove their product in the marketplace. From customer testimonials and ttheir recommendation to fellow aged care providers, I feel Painchek successfully garnered product-market fit. Now what we are debating is how they could scale the product internationally? The largest market, being the US still require FDA clearance and gettinig that hurdle out of the way for me is the most important milestone.

I do agree with PD in the sense that if they stop expanding Europe (mainly UK) and stop research efforts to get the FDA clearance, the ANZ business alone would be profitable despite not being significant profit. But honestly, why would anyone invest in a company solely focused in ANZ with limited revenue upside? I have flirted the idea to increase the price per bed and pray that it would not result in high churn rates.

So the push for intenational is essential.

My thesis for still maintaining my holding is reliant on sucessful product-market fit in North America and that bed growth would be faster since the market is wayy larger than AU. I am still very skeptical on the kids app because I don't understand how they will capture the parents market? They have yet to communicate a detailed go-to market strategy for the kids app. I don't give a fk about market share assumption.. I want to know how you will get that market share.. The main reason for the skepticism is that they would be diverting resources away from the FDA approval and I much rather have the company focus on getting that hurdle out of the way than going after a new market half-focused.

My thesis would be broken if FDA blocks the clearance. Then it adds another x number of years for implementation.which frankly I don't have time for.
2024 is crunch time. They must execute this year, otherwise it wil remain a shareholder capital destruction company.

My average price is around 8 cents so I am down ~ 60% (understand the pain a lot HC posters have)