TBN 2.63% 18.5¢ tamboran resources corporation

Ann: SS1H intersects 90m of high quality Mid Velkerri B shale, page-18

  1. 177 Posts.
    lightbulb Created with Sketch. 81
    Regarding farm-in/partners/sale a few things come to mind:
    1. I think Tamboran is in a mode where they are looking to maximize the value proposition in this
    phase. I'm thinking of announcements like the LNG land and numerous MOU's with eastern and global
    LNG buyers to provide an improved valuation to the contingent resource and utlimately reserves that are
    being established through the drills to date. It's a good way to realize better valuation with minimal
    CAPEX and presents a more FID/trigger ready type of project that will entice greater competition for a
    farm-in/partner/sale transaction. This isn't a simple, prove it and accept the market valuation with a
    bunch of risk/what-ifs left on the docket. I think we'll continue to see the what-if's addressed ahead of
    huge contingent resource/reserves announcements.
    2. The two Origin farm-in commitment wells aren't core to the valuation (yet), rather they are simply a
    fulfillment of the commitment. A full blown frac at the recent Amungee well and a flow rate that is
    limited by the reservoir pressure to lift all that fluid is telling about the reservoir pressure at Amungee,
    personally I would have expected good (not exceptional) reservoir pressure to lift that fluid without
    tubing let alone a minor frac additive being present. There are wells in the US that are sluggish to lift
    and need help, but I question the pressure at Amungee.
    3. The Shenandoah well is shaping up to be a technical proof of stimulation concept rather than a
    headline flow rate. Stimulating only 500m of wellbore will further hinder the lifting of fluid. Good
    pressure may or may not take care of that. I am not dissuaded that the first frac wasn't the caramilk
    solution. Perhaps this is nothing more than capital conservation to allow the intended program to be
    completed and arrive at the heavenly gates we all want.
    4. I don't see TBN being in a position to even discuss a farm-in/partner/sale agreement with a 13.5 cent
    valuation, that comes later when a couple significant wells have been delivered and the entire technical
    story has righted itself a bit. Don't get me wrong, anyone who knows what they're looking at will
    understand it, but the valuation isn't conducive to an action-oriented price discussion. I suspect there
    are plenty of eyeballs on the data if not data-rooms through.
    In summary, need a couple good wells and some market action before this occurs. An optimist would
    believe that executing the plan within the existing funds would get this into the 'deal space'.
 
watchlist Created with Sketch. Add TBN (ASX) to my watchlist
(20min delay)
Last
18.5¢
Change
-0.005(2.63%)
Mkt cap ! $381.1M
Open High Low Value Volume
19.0¢ 19.0¢ 18.5¢ $105.1K 561.0K

Buyers (Bids)

No. Vol. Price($)
10 647741 18.0¢
 

Sellers (Offers)

Price($) Vol. No.
19.0¢ 172759 3
View Market Depth
Last trade - 16.10pm 21/06/2024 (20 minute delay) ?
TBN (ASX) Chart
arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch. arrow-down-2 Created with Sketch.