Very useful call. These guys are super transparent. No fluff or bullsh*t.
Active customers and database are important metrics. Overtime will be able to infer customer LTV as they are building an ecosystem of loyal, sticky customers.
Franchise buybacks completed in Feb ‘21 should deliver $1.5m to $1.6m of NPAT in a full year of operation (circa 9% NPAT growth).
These stats put their start to FY22 in full context:
"We have lost 2,844 in-store trading days (or c.41% of available in-store trading days) from 1 Jul 21 to 27 Aug 21 due to government trading restrictions (FY21 –c10.4% or 793 days lost from 1 July 20 to 27 Aug 20) associated with COVID-19".
SSG is a super resilient company and online sales will continue to fuel growth.
Dividend payout represents c.55% of Cash EPS and c.60% of Basic EPS (Board target is 60-80%). Plenty of upside for dividends to continue growing, which will keep many holders happy.
I invested because they are the market leaders and I still expect plenty of growth over the midterm.
CEO is a cautious but skilled operator, who know's the business inside-out. I'm not expecting any headline grabbing growth plans (which partly explains why SSG flies inder the radar), but the CEO will continue to pursue low-risk growth. Did I hear correct that 2 new stores will open this half, with the potential for one more later this FY?
NZ key market for new stores. Ideally another 4-5, but travel restrictions have delayed this strategy. They are open to considering acquisitions, but not pursuing an acquisition strategy.
Expansion into new categories might turn out to be the key growth driver. This is precisely what a niche market leader should be doing.
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