The US tariff threat has so far worked as a lever for foreign...

The US tariff threat has so far worked as a lever for foreign policy security objectives, which is what I think it was always about. Both Mexico and now Canada today/tonight have succumbed by sending resources (10,000 new troops each) to their respective borders with the US and thus the threatened tariffs are on hold for at least a month (while progress on illegal drug & people movements as a result of the new resourcing is assessed).

The US tariff threats to the EU is a different kettle of fish imo, and much more economic in nature. The principal US objection seems to be the large trade imbalance, with EU buying much less from the US than vice versa (due to EU/member state restrictions or disincentives on buying US automobiles and US energy). Trump has singled both out in recent comments and seems to be demanding level playing field access to EU markets for both.

So unlike the Colombia, Mexico and Canada scuffles, I think the EU tariff threat is shaping up to be a real clash because both Trump and EU leaders all have mighty large egos and neither will want to blink first. I think some of the market uncertainty reflected in the share price here now is due to the fact that Vulcan is indirectly in the thick of it both in terms of automobiles (local lithium for EVs vs US imports) and energy (geothermal vs US O&G).

That said, the EU Commission had not backed away from its EV mandate nor shown any signs of shifting its position on renewable energy - in fact, with the (perhaps outgoing?) German Chancellor’s recent site visit, the recommitment to both has been underscored. Vulcan is therefore still in good stead, and today’s announcement highlights that despite a fickle market it is moving ahead with execution. After the SPP closed I commented here that geopolitical issues were to the fore, and it was not simply a post-SPP dip. I think this is even more apparent now, and the EU must soon give the wider market some strong signals and assurances that its policies remain intact and fully supported. I think EU subsidies of EVs is highly likely to be announced soon. At which point I think we’ll see a swift recovery for VUL.