“Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome.” ― Charlie...

“Show me the incentive and I'll show you the outcome.” ― Charlie Munger

The directors were last year gifted the right to up to $8m personally if they settled the claim for more than $50m. The cash was on a reducing sliding scale and topped out at $8m at a circa $228m settlement. At a $50m settlement they get nil. At $60m they get about $2.1m. At $100m it’s $3.5m. Etc. If they won at trial they’d also get paid (though the calc differed somewhat), but if they lost at trial they’d get zero.

So any settlement level below $50m is not incentivised at all. To me that makes such a deal highly unlikely because they could instead roll the dice at trial for massive potential upside and zero potential downside.

My guess is thus $60m+; my expectation is a number very close to that; my hope of course is much more.