VR8 0.00% 6.0¢ vanadium resources limited

I thought it was worth digging out and updating my investment...

  1. 216 Posts.
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    I thought it was worth digging out and updating my investment rationale for this, given the currently low SP. Not a lot has changed for me, just some people were disappointed by delays and are selling. If you're a short-term holder in a long-term business , it was never going to work out well for you. Sharing my rationale FYI. Not advice, DYOR etc

    Vanadium

    An essential material.

    Multi-purpose: Steel, alloys and batteries.

    If manufacturers want to make lighter, less-energyintensive steel and alloys they need to use more Vanadium to maintain strength.

    An emerging battery material

    Jurisdiction

    South Africa is the 3rd biggest producer of Vanadium,behind China and Russia, so less geopolitical risk for other countries as aproducer, or for financing or investment, while still being a market for China.

    South Africa is not as safe as Australia, Canada orthe US, but has a large, established, functioning mining sector.

    Can mine year-round

    Steelepoort. An established mining area in SA. Accessto a big city, infrastructure, low-cost labour, transport, water and energy.

    Solar plans de-risk energy reliance. Processing facilitynot far from mine site. Potential use of overland conveyor could reduce Opex.

    Management. Has significant skin in the game. Extensive experience.Prudent with cash. Raised money twice at a significant premium to the SP. DidBEE deals on good terms. Building a great team. Only issue of note is delays inproject, but TIA, economic conditions and low current vanadium price are allcontributors.

    Resource. Confirmed 680 million tonnes, at 0.7percent vanadium, as per DFS at a cut-off grade of 0.045%. LOM – 180 years.Only first 25 years accounted for in DFS

    Production costs. USD$3.24/ lb. Solid margins even attoday’s low Vanadium price. Strong profits when using the Deloitte long-termestimated mid-range price of USD$9.50/lb. Post-tax NPV attributable = AUD $1.66 Billion based on DFSvalue of USD$1.212 Billion x 0.8649 (I’ve used 86.49% ownership as I thinkgetting Reserve Bank approval for the second BEE transaction will also happen).Moving to 100% ownership also a possibility “Nothing is off the table” Jury.

    Capex, payback and funding. AUD $329 million. High relative tocurrent market cap, but achievable. 27-month payback. May be extended if lowvanadium price persists? Sounds like they have option for debt. But need toline up all 3 requirements on good terms – offtake, debt funding, capital raise

    Net Present Value vs current MC. Just 1.56% of the current NPV valueabove (current market cap of circa $26m vs $1660 NPV)

 
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