Ann: Stellantis complete first equity investment of US$15M in E25, page-63

100% agree its confusing as F**k. Re December quarter - My records had Amos departing on 11 October 2022 which is part of the December quarter.
The absence of DecQ revenue is presumably it was carrying September quarter sales.

Cascading forward, the December quarter reported sales of 28,610 but basically no revenue ($0.3m). Presumably MV Erin Manx who departed in January (46.6k) was delivering DecQ sales and also contributed a further 18kt to the March quarter. Pan Poseiden sailed early/mid April and took an unknown quantity (50-55kt?). One possibility is this was 44kt of March quarter sales (18+44=62) and another 6-11k of June quarter sales. Aqualeo departed 31 May and could also have carried 50-55kt which would be June quarter sales. E25 may have also done further presales with some of its closing inventory stockpile &/or June production. I'd used a guess at 80kt which is inside the range possible if there was around 20kt of new presales. If E25 further reduced its closing inventory (26.5k at March) they may have something even up to 100kt of sales in the June quarter (but not all of that would be delivered and may not meet the conditions for revenue recognition). If they didn't use any presales, June could be down at 60kt of sales.

E25 noted 50kt of ore at port in its last quarterly but only 26.5k of closing inventory so ore volumes and sales volumes are not aligned. The picture below is the site basically at the end of June. There are large piles north of the processing plant but that area has in the past been used for RoM. The bottom of the picture just below the white roof reflection is where processed ore is stored before transportation to port. There doesn't look to be much there so most processed ore is at Port Hedland. This means E25 may have presold it. Then again they may not. So many guesses.

@Authentic8, Correct, that's what I've done partly on the assumption that process improvements have improved the grade back to 32% (or there abouts) and that helps reduce the grade discount applying. Its partly on guesses that try to match back to reported revenue, but again this is a guessing game when key bits of the equation like grade produced are not being reported on. E25 was at one stage bullish that the ore premia was just around the corner but I suspect the conversation with OHM was "well will talk about that when the grade is better". Grade wasn't better for a long time and at least one Petra report used 30.5% which would appear to be a supplied figure rather than a guessed figure.

To date total costs have remained under the pre-production studies. The pre-production plan I'd noted in spreadsheets was 365kt yr1-5 production. US$2.91/dmtu costs, 33% grade and 0.70 exchange rate. This creates annual costs of $50m and quarterly costs of $12.5m. There hasn't been an absolute cost blowout because E25 isn't operating at $14-$15m+/quarter in costs. There's been a productivity issue in that the $11-$13m typically spend hasn't been able to deliver 90ktpa (yet). If they are getting the equipment and processes working properly now, the primary cost that should increase is trucking costs. Most of the rest of the production has minimal additional cost because the plant and equipment is already in the cost base. While inflation is likely to push the C1 cost above US$3/dmtu on decent quarterly volumes it may not be that much above $3, particularly if grade issues are also sorted. Expansion may still pull the cost base back below US$3/dmtu again.