Ann: STO: Strong Caley oil flow advances Dorado, page-143

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terryturbo

346 Posts.

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09/10/19

14:50

Post #: 40795739
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Originally posted by Retired123: ↑

Regarding a TO I'd love to be a fly on the wall at STO if they are looking to sell down it's share from 80%. Any potential farm in buyer of say 20% would be eyeing CVN at current prices with total MC of around $600m seeing CVN's 20% of Dorado as cheap considering all the upside - Parvo, Apus, Buffalo, Laberynth etc etc. And let's not forget the gas in Roc and Phoenix - the forgotten poor cousins. There's a lot of gas there and with WPL probably looking at tolling gas as NWS declines post around 2022. Just shooting the breeze and dreaming big.

So maybe a STO Dorado farm in partner is keeping CVN's price down to keep the Dorado farm in price low. Even if they broke even or even lost a bit on shorting the cost would be worth it. However any potential partner would know a bid for CVN would need to be north of 60c - a lot north.

As for conspiracy theories please remember at all times after working at a large multi national for many years I learnt they don't make good decisions all the time. Shorters are gamblers. There was a recent heavily shorted company that sold a big part of it's business for a spectacular price. Shorters were very badly burnt trying to buy back. It was large fertiliser and explosives company.

And on that note many here would be too young to remember IPEC (I think) in the 70s? where someone took on the shorters and actually bought more shares than were on issue. This was before shorting without owning shares was legal. The shorters were in a precarious position when they discovered this and the holder told them the buy back price was 100% more than the current price then. The ASX declared it was unfair tactics but I say if you play with matches....

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Hi @Retired123

Would you be able to explain a bit more on this paragrah:
"So maybe a STO Dorado farm in partner is keeping CVN's price down to keep the Dorado farm in price low. Even if they broke even or even lost a bit on shorting the cost would be worth it. However any potential partner would know a bid for CVN would need to be north of 60c - a lot north."

I don't fully understand how Farm ins work, I assumed that CVN would lease out x volume of oil to another operator and the other operator would share the development costs. Why would maintaining CVN's SP at this range have any effect on the farm in agreement?

CVN Price at posting: 39.8¢ Sentiment: Buy Disclosure: Held
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0 Great analysis

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