Certainly agree that Atlas will be the lion share of investment in 2022. Overall capex was $25m but some of this is already sunk costs but that is probably a small slice.
Bidaminna is the next big development and it’s Feasibility Study is due in Q1 2022. From there it has a 2-3year development timeline to production, so funding required in 2022 should be relatively low considering. As for what we will spend on Eneabba, that is anyone’s guess at the moment but it is hard to see much being spent in the first half of next year but it is likely to be less than a $1m. So if you said all up, in the first half of 2022, we will spend $22m ($20m on Atlas, and another $2m on Bidaminna and Eneabba) and we earn say $8m net /quarter in the 3 qtr to mid 2022, IMA’s cash position would be $15m (sept21 position less $19m divi) plus $24m less $22m that would leave them with a net cash position of $17m at the end of June 2022 which imo is still quite comfortable.
Of course if they spend more Capex and/or earn less from sales, the number changes but currently sale prices are going up and capex will probably get spread out over a longer period so these numbers should end up better. Having said that in today’s market, who knows where it will head.
So, the more I do my numbers the more convinced I get. IMO there will still be a dividend and it is very feasible that it will be as big as the initial one and fully franked. Regardless, if they don’t they will just end up sitting on more cash which should bolster the SP.
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