There's a lot of variation between spot and contract rates....

There's a lot of variation between spot and contract rates. Allkem noted in their recent quarterly indicative pricing for 6% ore of US$2,500/t for a Jan 2022 shipment.

In the CXO thread there is a dedicated tread around spod prices (well it keeps fairly focused). Attempts to backwards engineer the price from percentage movements at Asian metals have US$2,690/t estimates. Some of the commentary based sources are even talking about $3,000/t.

The general thinking appears to be the Spod prices will rise further before falling. No-one knows where the peak and its also pretty much guess work as to how quickly prices will fall from what-ever the peak is. The Rio Tinto/Russia situation will mean higher for longer because a slice of probable delivery just disappeared.

The LTR capital raising had a life-of-mine average of US$1,392/t (pg38).
The year 1-10 average used with FoB pricing was US$1,287 (based on a Roskill price) - pg21

The North Aubry optimisation work used US$730/t (revenue not margin). This was sensible at the time, but what was marginal is now very commercial.