BGT 0.00% 5.0¢ bio-gene technology ltd

Ann: Strategic Placement of $1.5 million to Cornerstone Investor, page-105

  1. 27,234 Posts.
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    Everything on the ASX is a bet on probability of commercial success, less time discount, and forward looking capital requirements .

    And that needs then to calculate what the winning prize is, firstly in an initial period, which secondly that lends itself to a long term growth trend de-risked. And factor in that a takeover event is probable.

    With any stock, you then need to ask, what is the winning prize ? and what are your odds of a successful event to unlock that prize ? With multiple verticals, multiple commercial deals, any of them with wider market awareness will continue to re-rate.

    A hungry industry for that 6th mode of bee friendly chemistry, mixing to prevent resistivity is essential - therefore answers the probability question, especially given the de-risk trials to date.
    Markets pay for confidence of commercial success.
    While we continue to garnish wider awareness, buyers recognize the heightened probability of inevitable and substantial valuation.
    Leading into that bet, of $billions in verticals, we should be at least speculatively positioning into the hundreds of millions in valuation imo. Itchy fingers start Multiply those forward earnings by an industry level PE factor.
    What displaces the sellers who value obscurity today at 50m mc, come next year will wonder what fog had overcome their vision, because the mountain has always been there.
    This will take its place among the essentials in the industry.
    My initial thoughts are that it is likely a takeover target, before it gets to commercial $$, because the majors will want all the licencing for all the verticals to boost their forward growth.
    We either climb this mountain to the top as an industrial supplier of magic juice for world wide pesticide, or we get taken over at base camp for $200-500-1b. imo

    Last edited by stevenjd: 31/03/22
 
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